Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.050 dolara gerileyerek Kas\u0131m 2025\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD enflasyonu ile Fed\u2019in \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d (higher-for-longer) duru\u015fu beklentilerini peki\u015ftiren artan Orta Do\u011fu gerilimini birlikte fiyatl\u0131yor. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019da sald\u0131r\u0131lara ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 ve bu ad\u0131m\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201chaks\u0131z ve s\u00fcregelen sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u201d yan\u0131t olarak niteledi. Bu geli\u015fme, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Washington\u2019un \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 yeniden \u201c\u00e7ok sert\u201d vuraca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu (BLS) verileri, T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) enflasyonunun May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda Nisan\u2019daki %3,8\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bunun son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi oldu\u011funu ve beklentilerle uyumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Ayl\u0131k bazda T\u00dcFE %0,5 artarken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,9 y\u00fckseldi. Fed\u2019in Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak vadeli i\u015flemlerdeki fiyatlama, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu zemin, getiri sa\u011flamayan k\u0131ymetli metal \u00fczerinde genellikle bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
S\u0131cak gelen %4,2\u2019lik T\u00dcFE verisi \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan ziyade Fed\u2019in enflasyona verece\u011fi tepkiye odaklanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u201cDaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d beklentisi \u015fu anda bask\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 konumunda. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filimimizi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; psikolojik 4.000 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar en az bir adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 olarak g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta yaln\u0131zca %50 seviyesindeydi. Getiri sa\u011flamayan bir varl\u0131k olarak alt\u0131n, faizlerle birlikte elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti artt\u0131k\u00e7a belirgin bi\u00e7imde daha az cazip hale geliyor. Piyasan\u0131n bu yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesinin k\u0131ymetli metal \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 devam ettirmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (GVZ) 22,5 seviyesine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da hem enflasyon verilerinden hem de jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynaklanan belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u00fckselen z\u0131mni volatilite, prim satmay\u0131 bizim i\u00e7in cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor. Alt\u0131nda beklenen fiyat tavan\u0131ndan ve y\u00fcksek prim seviyelerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00f6nsel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe sahip olanlar i\u00e7in, \u015fahin Fed anlat\u0131s\u0131na en do\u011frudan bahis alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almakt\u0131r. Ancak dikkatli olmak gerekiyor; ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik askeri eylemlerinde anlaml\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma, bu i\u015flemi ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lacak ani bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d rallisini tetikleyebilir. Bu ba\u015fl\u0131k riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa pozisyonlarda s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu piyasa ortam\u0131, 1980\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 and\u0131r\u0131yor: Volcker liderli\u011findeki Fed\u2019in agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, y\u00fcksek enflasyona ve jeopolitik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Tarih, bir merkez bankas\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede kararl\u0131 oldu\u011funda bunun k\u0131ymetli metaller i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Benzer bir dinami\u011fin yeniden devreye girdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: XAU\/USD 4.050 dolarla Kas\u0131m 2025\u2019ten beri dipte. %4,2\u2019lik T\u00dcFE \u201chigher-for-longer\u201d beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. FedWatch Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %85; 4.000 alt\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48565","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48565"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48565\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48565"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48565"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48565"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}