G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 may\u0131sta %2,8 seviyesinde sabit kald\u0131 ve man\u015fet i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Resmi ayl\u0131k veride genel oranda bir oynama g\u00f6r\u00fclmemesi, \u00fclkenin ge\u00e7 ilkbahar d\u00f6neminde istikrarl\u0131 bir i\u015fsizlik temposunda ilerledi\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
De\u011fi\u015fmeyen %2,8 seviyesi, d\u00f6nem boyunca i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n genel olarak yatay seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; may\u0131s ay\u0131, ana g\u00f6stergede ne iyile\u015fme ne de bozulma getirdi. Veriler i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 nisan ay\u0131ndaki seviyede b\u0131rak\u0131rken, ayl\u0131k bazda yatay trendi peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki %2,8\u2019lik sabit i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yurti\u00e7i ekonominin i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu istikrar, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 ani olumsuz \u015fok olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. \u015eimdilik bu durum, Kore hisse senetlerini destekleyecek temel bir dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOK) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan enflasyon denklemine karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k kat\u0131yor. Son t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi verilerinde enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 %3,1 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi ve hedefin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi ihtimali zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bir sonraki toplant\u0131da BOK\u2019un politika faizini %3,50\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, Kore wonunun (KRW) ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u015eahin bir merkez bankas\u0131 duru\u015fu, para birimi i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturmal\u0131. Dura\u011fan ya da g\u00fc\u00e7lenen wonden faydalanabilecek t\u00fcrev stratejilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak (out-of-the-money) USD\/KRW al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi.<\/p>\n
KOSPI 200 endeksi taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha karma\u015f\u0131k. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yurti\u00e7i ekonomi olumlu olsa da, son veriler ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde, \u00f6zellikle de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,2\u2019ye gerileyen yar\u0131 iletkenlerde, bir yumu\u015famaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r, ana endeksteki anlaml\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda KOSPI 200\u2019\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla bant i\u00e7inde (range-bound) hareket edece\u011fi bir senaryo yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, 2023\u2019\u00fcn ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yurti\u00e7i verilerle birlikte k\u00fcresel talebe dair belirsizli\u011fin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer d\u00f6nemlerde endeks yatay seyretmi\u015fti. Bu nedenle, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatiliteden getiri elde etmek \u00fczere KOSPI 200 opsiyonlar\u0131nda strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya iron condor gibi stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eli\u015fkili sinyaller, Kore varl\u0131klar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin pahal\u0131 fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Mevcut piyasada, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya bahis oynayan stratejilerden ziyade prim toplamaya y\u00f6nelik stratejilerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde bir de\u011fi\u015fim olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi verilerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de i\u015fsizlik may\u0131sta %2,8\u2019de kald\u0131: \u0130\u00e7 talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, BOK\u2019un %3,50\u2019de kal\u0131p yaz\u0131n indirimden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 olas\u0131. KRW destekli; KOSPI 200\u2019de bant ve opsiyonda prim toplama \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48563","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48563"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48563\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48563"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48563"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48563"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}