USD\/JPY \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc 160,50 civar\u0131nda tamamlayarak Temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece Japon Yeni, piyasalar\u0131n gelecek Sal\u0131 Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatlamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131l\u0131n en zay\u0131f kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131na geriledi. Beklenen 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f politika faizini %1\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yacak; bu seviye en son 1990\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak yen tepki vermedi. ABD enflasyon verileri de dengeyi sarst\u0131: man\u015fet T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2 gelirken \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,2 artt\u0131; parite Asya seans\u0131nda 160,00 \u00fczerindeki dip seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k bir saatli\u011fine geri \u00e7ekildi, ard\u0131ndan kapan\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru yeniden y\u00fckselerek yeni zirvelere t\u0131rmand\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n son ulusal T\u00dcFE verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,4 ile BoJ\u2019nin %2 hedefinin alt\u0131nda seyrederken, mali y\u0131l enflasyon tahmini %2,8 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor; May\u0131s T\u00dcFE Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 23:30 GMT\u2019de, politika karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. ABD verileri, 172 binlik tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve CME FedWatch\u2019un gelecek \u00c7ar\u015famba i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k %98 olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u201cbeklemede kalma\u201d fiyatlamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 getiri beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor; Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70, iki art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise %25\u2019in \u00fczerinde. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 Per\u015fembe 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD \u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrilirken (konsens\u00fcs y\u0131ll\u0131k %6,4), Cuma 14:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Michigan \u00dcniversitesi anketinde 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,8 civar\u0131nda izleniyordu.<\/p>\n
Japon yeninin, BoJ\u2019den faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenmesine ra\u011fmen zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 elde tutma te\u015fviki h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Temel sorun faiz fark\u0131: bu sabah itibar\u0131yla ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi %4,75 seviyesinde bulunurken, Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili yaln\u0131zca %1,1 getiriyor. Bu geni\u015f fark, yenden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p dolara yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmay\u0131 k\u00e2rl\u0131 h\u00e2le getiriyor ve bu i\u015flem yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019nin beklenen art\u0131\u015f\u0131, i\u00e7 enflasyona bir yan\u0131t olmaktan ziyade zay\u0131f para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 savunmac\u0131 bir hamle gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Nisan 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin son d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dolar cinsinden fiyatlanan enerji ithalat maliyetlerindeki s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n etkisiyle \u00a51,8 trilyon a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. Bu durum, kurun ekonomi \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkisi nedeniyle merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ad\u0131m atmaya zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan ABD ekonomisi dolara rahatlama sa\u011flam\u0131yor; bu da dolarda al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) son verileri, ABD\u2019nin May\u0131s 2026\u2019da 215.000 istihdam ekledi\u011fini ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,1 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu sa\u011flam tablo, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirmesi i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekleyerek dolar\u0131n getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 koruyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda, Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MoF) ge\u00e7mi\u015fte m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi b\u00f6lgenin derinlerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yetkililerin, parite bu seviyelerdeyken yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in 2024\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda rekor \u00a59,2 trilyon harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Resm\u00ee ad\u0131m kaynakl\u0131 USD\/JPY\u2019de ani ve sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket riski \u015fu a\u015famada son derece y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, uzun volatilite stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Uzun vadeli USD\/JPY call opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, temel yukar\u0131 trendden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken MoF m\u00fcdahalesi durumunda azami zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Sert bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan opsiyon primleri y\u00fckseliyor; ancak opsiyon ta\u015f\u0131mak, piyasan\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez do\u011fas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadeli odak, yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi ve gelecek Sal\u0131 BoJ karar\u0131. ABD\u2019den y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon verisi, pariteyi kolayl\u0131kla 161,00\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yabilir ve BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131lmadan \u00f6nce m\u00fcdahaleyi tetikleyebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 seansta keskin ve \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 konumlanmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 160,50\u2019de Temmuz 2024\u2019ten beri zirvede: BoJ\u2019nin beklenen 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bile yeni canland\u0131ram\u0131yor. ABD faiz avantaj\u0131 carry\u2019i besliyor; m\u00fcdahale riski artarken g\u00f6zler \u00dcFE\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47778,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48561","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48561"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48561\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47778"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48561"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48561"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48561"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}