ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), May\u0131s ABD enflasyon verilerinin kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan 100,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc korudu. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f %0,5 oldu. D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda EUR\/USD, ECB karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 1,1540\u2019a do\u011fru gerilerken; GBP\/USD, geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin etkisiyle 1,3370\u2019e do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. USD\/JPY, y\u00fckselen ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinin ABD\u2013Japonya getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7mas\u0131yla 160,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; AUD\/USD ise NAB\u2019\u0131n RBA\u2019n\u0131n bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n muhtemelen faiz indirimi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmesinin ard\u0131ndan 0,7000\u2019e do\u011fru zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Emtia taraf\u0131nda WTI ham petrol, Washington\u2013Tahran m\u00fczakerelerinin zorlu ge\u00e7ti\u011fine dair haberlerle arz riskleri g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131rken %3 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90,80 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; alt\u0131n ise daha y\u00fcksek getiriler ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131yla 4.070 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Takvimde Avustralya enflasyon beklentileri, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019tan bir dizi faaliyet ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret verisi, Almanya T\u00dcFE ve ECB faiz karar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor; ard\u0131ndan ABD \u00dcFE, \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE ve haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 takip edilecek. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise Japonya sanayi \u00fcretimi ile ABD Michigan g\u00fcven endeksi ve enflasyon beklentileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. WTI \u00f6nemli bir referans olmaya devam ediyor; fiyatlar arz-talep dinamikleri, OPEC kararlar\u0131, dolar ve API ile EIA\u2019n\u0131n stok verileri taraf\u0131ndan belirleniyor. Bu iki kurumun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 zaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %75\u2019inde %1 i\u00e7inde benzerlik g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de %4,2\u2019lik y\u00fcksek enflasyon okumas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcre \u015fahin duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 tercih etme stratejimizi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Son d\u00f6nemde \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu (BLS) verileri, altta yatan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n inat\u00e7\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, DXY\u2019nin y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirvelerini test etmesini ve potansiyel olarak a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) bug\u00fcnk\u00fc politika karar\u0131 kritik bir g\u00fcndem maddesi; ancak bunun Fed anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden gelen son imalat PMI verileri daralma sinyalleri vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131; bu da ECB\u2019nin Fed\u2019in tonunu yakalamas\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alan b\u0131rakt\u0131. Bu nedenle EUR\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131\u015f (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz ve 1,1450 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareketi hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin 4,75\u2019in \u00fczerine yerle\u015fmesiyle faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan bir sonucu. 2024 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fcksek olsa da, altta yatan momentuma ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak paritenin daha yukar\u0131 itilmesini bekliyoruz. Al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken, ani bir politika hamlesi riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri kullan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Emtia cephesinde petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00fckseli\u015fi, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 arz taraf\u0131 endi\u015felerinden besleniyor. Jeopolitik gerilim, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n talebi bask\u0131lay\u0131c\u0131 etkisini \u015fu a\u015famada g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Son EIA raporu, 3 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrpriz bir stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle bu s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 teyit etti; bu nedenle WTI vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelin devam etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k alt\u0131n, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fckselen tahvil getirileri nedeniyle belirgin bir r\u00fczg\u00e2rla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Getiri \u00fcretmeyen bir varl\u0131k olarak alt\u0131n, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n devlet tahvillerinden tatmin edici bir getiri elde edebildi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde daha az cazip hale geliyor. Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini ve 4.000 dolardaki psikolojik destek seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmeyi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Avustralya dolar\u0131 \u00f6zellikle k\u0131r\u0131lgan; piyasa art\u0131k Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimini fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019den gelen daha zay\u0131f ekonomik verilerle birle\u015fince d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini destekliyor. AUD\/USD\u2019de olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri yeni k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DXY, May\u0131s T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %4,2\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla 100 \u00fczerindeki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor: Fed \u015fahin, EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD bask\u0131da. USD\/JPY 160,50 \u00fcst\u00fc; WTI 90,80$; alt\u0131n 4.000$\u2019a \u00e7ekilebilir. Takvim yo\u011fun.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48559","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48559"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48559\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48559"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48559"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48559"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}