EUR\/USD paritesi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1550 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Euro, beklenen Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay kal\u0131rken, piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck politika patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin y\u00f6nlendirme yer ald\u0131. 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde beklendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, sonraki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131 konusundaki belirsizlik ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair endi\u015feler, a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesinde pozisyonlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, ABD enflasyon verilerinin May\u0131s ay\u0131nda man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,2\u2019ye geldi\u011fini, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ise y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan destek buldu. \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risk olmaya devam etti\u011fi de izlendi. 4 saatlik grafikte parite 1,1609\u2019daki 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda, 1,1540\u2019taki 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 1,1559 ve 1,1573 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. RSI\u2019\u0131n 46 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi momentuma dair zay\u0131f bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret ederken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 halinde 1,1549 ve 1,1535 seviyeleri destek olarak takip edildi.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD 1,1550 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasan\u0131n iki z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 neredeyse tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda; ancak dikkatimizin oda\u011f\u0131 ECB\u2019nin y\u00f6nlendirmesi. Zira son veriler, Almanya sanayi \u00fcretiminin Nisan 2026\u2019da beklentilerin aksine %0,5 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki bu temel ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelse bile euronun yukar\u0131 potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD\u2019de enflasyonun kat\u0131 seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve bu durum, devam eden \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokuyla daha da a\u011f\u0131rla\u015f\u0131yor. May\u0131s 2026 raporuna g\u00f6re T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2 seviyesinde tutunuyor; bu oran Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu dinamik, 1970\u2019lerdeki benzer enerji krizlerine benzetilebilir; o d\u00f6nemde enflasyon y\u0131llarca y\u00fcksek kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu da Fed\u2019in faiz indirimini g\u00fcndeme almak i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alan\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, gelecek hafta vadesi dolan opsiyonlarda %11\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan z\u0131mni volatilitenin prim sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in cazip olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1535 civar\u0131ndaki destek ile 1,1609 seviyesindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 taraf\u0131ndan tan\u0131mlanan dar bir bantta kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle, beklenen konsolidasyondan prim toplamak amac\u0131yla strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya iron condor stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, ECB bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda sert bir hareket riski g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli; beklenenden g\u00fcvercin bir s\u00f6ylem k\u0131r\u0131lgan deste\u011fi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, 1,1500 alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip ucuz, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 da al\u0131n\u0131yor. Bu, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sonuna i\u015faret etmesi halinde paritede h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir hedge i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada, ECB faiz art\u0131rsa bile gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck temkinli bir tonun euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, bir merkez bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131rken ayn\u0131 zamanda ekonomiye dair endi\u015fe sinyali verirse, para birimi \u00e7o\u011fu zaman \u201cs\u00f6ylentiyi al, ger\u00e7e\u011fi sat\u201d tepkisiyle zay\u0131flar. Bu da 1,1600 \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmelerin, vadeli i\u015flemler veya daha uzun vadeli put spread\u2019ler \u00fczerinden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB \u00f6ncesi EUR\/USD 1,1550\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131! 25 bp art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131rken y\u00f6nlendirme kritik. ABD\u2019de y\u00fcksek T\u00dcFE dolar\u0131 destekliyor; tekniklerde 1,1609 diren\u00e7, 1,1535 destek, volatilite y\u00fckseli\u015fte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48558"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48558\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}