\u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetti; USD\/CHF yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7991 seviyesinde, iki ay\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n seyrederken, yeniden alevlenen ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi Greenback\u2019e olan talebi destekledi ve piyasalar\u0131n ABD enflasyon verilerine tepkisini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. ABD T\u00dcFE enflasyonu May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek Nisan 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ise daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketici maliyetlerine yans\u0131mas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n %0,6\u2019dan %0,5\u2019e geriledi. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon %2,8\u2019den %2,9\u2019a hafif y\u00fckseldi; ancak ayl\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek art\u0131\u015f %0,4\u2019ten %0,2\u2019ye yava\u015flayarak beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve Fed i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 genel olarak korudu.<\/p>\n
Ard\u0131ndan fiyatlamay\u0131 jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler y\u00f6nlendirdi. Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda bir ABD Apache helikopterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenledi; \u0130ran da K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki ABD askeri \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131larla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi. Dolar Endeksi (DXY), 99,72\u2019ye geriledikten sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,92\u2019ye toparlan\u0131rken, dikkatler Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) raporuna \u00e7evrildi; man\u015fet \u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,0\u2019dan %6,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE\u2019nin ise %5,2\u2019den %5,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131, jeopolitik belirsizli\u011fin ABD dolar\u0131na destek vermesiyle zay\u0131f bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyor. USD\/CHF paritesi h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 0,9050 civar\u0131nda tutunuyor ve s\u00fcregelen ticaret gerilimleri ortam\u0131nda Greenback\u2019e y\u00f6nelik geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 talebi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu durum, \u015fimdilik dolar\u0131 tercih edilen g\u00fcvenli liman haline getirdi.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131 i\u00e7in beklentilerden daha yumu\u015fak gelen son ABD enflasyon verilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) %3,3\u2019e gerilerken, g\u0131da ve enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %3,4\u2019e indi. Bu veriler, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fudu\u011funa ancak Fed\u2019in hedefinin inatla \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalardaki pozisyonlanmam\u0131z\u0131n temel belirleyicisi. Fed sabit kal\u0131p olas\u0131 faiz indirimleri \u00f6ncesinde sab\u0131r sinyali verirken, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) bu ay ikinci kez 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirimle gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu politika fark\u0131, CHF\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir USD\u2019yi destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam\u0131n, ABD dolar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisini opsiyonlarla ifade etmek i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar. Z\u0131mni volatilitedeki son art\u0131\u015f, olas\u0131 fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu stratejileri \u00f6zellikle anlaml\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2022-2023 enflasyon d\u00f6nemine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 sinyallerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febildi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. \u015eu anda ya\u015fananlara benzer jeopolitik gerilimler, genellikle k\u0131sa vadede dolara olan talepte s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7ar. Bu nedenle volatilitenin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yor ve paritenin son zirvelerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde f\u0131rsat kolluyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik e\u015fik: ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi dolar\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcvenli limana ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131, USD\/CHF iki ay zirvesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. T\u00dcFE s\u00fcrprizi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; g\u00f6zler \u00dcFE\u2019de. Fed\u2013SNB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48556\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}