ABD, son ayl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e beyan\u0131na g\u00f6re May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 293 milyar dolarl\u0131k ayl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydetti. Bu rakam, piyasan\u0131n 275 milyar dolarl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmenin tahminlerin 18 milyar dolar \u00fczerinde (daha geni\u015f) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Veri, ay baz\u0131nda beklenenden daha zay\u0131f bir mali dengeye i\u015faret ediyor. Federal h\u00fck\u00fcmetin beklentilere k\u0131yasla y\u00fcksek seyreden b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir d\u00f6nemde, kamu maliyesinin k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne olumsuz bir not daha ekliyor.<\/p>\n
Beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki 293 milyar dolarl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha fazla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyor. Bunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Hazine tahvili getirileri \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Hazine, bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in muhtemelen daha fazla bor\u00e7lanma arac\u0131 ihra\u00e7 etmek zorunda kalacak; bu da piyasadaki tahvil arz\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racak.<\/p>\n
Bu mali kayma, ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7\/GSYH oran\u0131n\u0131n zaten y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin son verilere g\u00f6re oran yakla\u015f\u0131k %124 seviyesinde. Kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131klar enflasyonist olarak alg\u0131lanabilir ve bu durum, Fed\u2019in fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 koruma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Bu da y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda faiz politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ilave bir belirsizlik katman\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, daha y\u00fcksek faizlere pozisyon almak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (ZN) put almak veya SOFR opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmak, tahvil fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in etkili bir strateji olabilir. Tarihsel olarak, e\u015flik eden bir ekonomik patlama olmaks\u0131z\u0131n mali a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n geni\u015fledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemler getiri e\u011frisinin dikle\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini art\u0131r\u0131p tahvilleri daha cazip bir alternatif haline getirerek genellikle hisse senedi piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine (headwind) d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr. Bu nedenle S&P 500 gibi ba\u015fl\u0131ca endekslere y\u00f6nelik koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 da, olas\u0131 bir piyasa geri \u00e7ekilmesine kar\u015f\u0131 VIX endeksi \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 zaman\u0131nda bir hedge arac\u0131 haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ise daha belirsiz; zira bir yandan potansiyel olarak daha y\u00fcksek getirilerin \u00e7ekimi, di\u011fer yandan bozulan mali temellerin itmesi aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Son ABD Hazine ihaleleri, talebin bir miktar zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti; talep\/kar\u015f\u0131lama (bid-to-cover) oranlar\u0131 12 ayl\u0131k 2,5 ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir pozisyon olu\u015fturmadan \u00f6nce net bir y\u00f6n k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na dair sinyaller i\u00e7in UUP gibi d\u00f6viz ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131 izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta 293 milyar dolara s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; beklentiyi 18 milyar a\u015ft\u0131. Daha fazla bor\u00e7lanma tahvil arz\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir, getirileri yukar\u0131 itebilir; hisse ve dolar cephesinde belirsizlik b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48548","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48548"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48548\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48548"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48548"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48548"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}