ABD enflasyon verilerinin faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini canl\u0131 tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %3\u2019ten fazla geriledi. XAU\/USD, yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.105 dolar civar\u0131ndaki iki ayl\u0131k dipleri test ettikten sonra 4.130 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flat\u0131labilece\u011fine dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00dcrd\u00fcn, Kuveyt ve Bahreyn\u2019deki ABD \u00fcslerini vurdu\u011funa ili\u015fkin haberlerle daha da bask\u0131land\u0131.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,2 artarak son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 Nisan\u2019daki %3,8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %3,9 y\u00fckselirken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %2,8\u2019den %2,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Para piyasalar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; ancak ima edilen s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc 25 baz puandan 21 baz puana geriledi. Petrol ve tahvil faizleri de bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131: WTI %2,62 y\u00fckseli\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91,00 dolara \u00e7\u0131karken, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi yakla\u015f\u0131k iki baz puan artarak %4,536 oldu. G\u00f6zler, man\u015fet \u00dcFE\u2019nin %6\u2019dan %6,4\u2019e ve \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE\u2019nin %5,2\u2019den %5,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi beklenen May\u0131s \u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi. 6 Haziran\u2019da biten haftaya ili\u015fkin i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n da 225 binden 219 bine gerilemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Grafikler 4.098 dolarda destek, ard\u0131ndan 4.000 ve 3.886 dolar seviyelerini; 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO\u2019nun bulundu\u011fu 4.443 dolar civar\u0131 ile 4.500 dolarda diren\u00e7 g\u00f6steriyor. RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde olsa da 20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut piyasa dinamikleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n i\u00e7in belirgin bir ay\u0131 senaryosu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ile petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 iten artan jeopolitik gerilimin birle\u015fimi, getiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in zor bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Bu nedenle stratejimiz, XAU\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam\u0131na pozisyon almak olacak.<\/p>\n
Son ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin %4,2 gelmesi, \u201cfaizler daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalacak\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek ana itici unsur konumunda. CME FedWatch Tool verileri, y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %70\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklemeye ve alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmaya devam edecektir. Enflasyonist e\u011filimin teyidi i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) verisini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019la ya\u015fanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir etki yarat\u0131yor; WTI ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini art\u0131rmaktan ziyade enflasyon endi\u015felerini besliyor. Tarihsel olarak 1970\u2019lerdeki benzer petrol \u015foklar\u0131 agresif parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu da alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r. Bu dinamik, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisi %4,536 olan ABD tahvillerini daha cazip bir g\u00fcvenli liman alternatifi haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6zellikle kritik 4.098 dolar destek seviyesinin alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyerek alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme al\u0131yoruz. Y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip seviyenin net \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 4.000 dolar psikolojik seviyesine do\u011fru \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Bunun, beklenen oynakl\u0131k ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem sundu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca 106 seviyesinin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanan ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) de izlemek gerekiyor; bu da bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131na yakla\u015fsa da hen\u00fcz u\u00e7 seviyelere inmi\u015f de\u011fil; bu, sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itmesi i\u00e7in alan oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ancak alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.443 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131 yeniden kazanmas\u0131 halinde g\u00fcndeme gelebilir; bu ise \u015fimdilik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %4,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi, XAU\/USD %3+ d\u00fc\u015ferek 4.105\u2019i test etti. Jeopolitik gerilim, petrol ve tahvil getirileri bask\u0131y\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48547","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48547","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48547"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48547\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48547"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48547"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48547"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}