ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Tahran\u2019\u0131n bir anla\u015fma imzalamamas\u0131 halinde ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a \u201c\u00e7ok sert sald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan ise altyap\u0131ya y\u00f6nelik tehditleri reddederek \u00fclkenin bask\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u201csars\u0131lmaz\u201d kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Gerilimin y\u00fckselmesiyle piyasalar h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verdi; alt\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,50 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 4.116 dolara inerken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,97 ile yatay seyretti. ABD ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi WTI, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirerek %2,80\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi ve yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Riskli varl\u0131klar sat\u0131ld\u0131. S&P 500 %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde, Nasdaq ise %1,6\u2019dan fazla geriledi. Ayr\u0131 bir d\u00f6viz performans tablosu, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n Avustralya dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para birimi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirken, e\u015flik eden \u0131s\u0131 haritas\u0131 se\u00e7ilen baz ve kar\u015f\u0131t d\u00f6vizlere g\u00f6re maj\u00f6r pariteler aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6reli hareketleri ortaya koydu. Kaynak ayr\u0131ca standart \u201crisk-on\u201d ve \u201crisk-off\u201d tan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 vererek bunlar\u0131 hisse senetleri, emtialar, tahviller ve g\u00fcvenli liman para birimlerindeki kaymalarla ili\u015fkilendirdi; risk-on d\u00f6nemlerinde AUD, CAD, NZD, RUB ve ZAR\u2019a, risk-off d\u00f6nemlerinde ise USD, JPY ve CHF\u2019ye at\u0131fta bulundu.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki tehditlerin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) stratejisine ge\u00e7iyoruz. Hisselerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rama ile g\u00f6r\u00fclen mevcut piyasa tepkisi, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli limana y\u00f6nelmesinin klasik bir g\u00f6stergesi. T\u00fcm varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrolde %2,8\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 en do\u011frudan ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir piyasa hareketi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Zira d\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019i \u0130ran yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7iyor; olas\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma arz\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde sekteye u\u011fratarak fiyatlar\u0131 \u00e7ok daha yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. WTI ya da Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) gibi ham petrol t\u00fcrevlerinde uzun pozisyonlar de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik artt\u0131k\u00e7a hisse piyasalar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalacakt\u0131r. S&P 500 ve Nasdaq zaten gerilemi\u015fken, portf\u00f6ylerimizi daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 hedge etmeliyiz. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, maj\u00f6r endekslerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) almak veya E-mini S&P 500 vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7mak temkinli bir savunma stratejisidir.<\/p>\n
Genel piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda keskin bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz; bu da CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) \u00fczerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak jeopolitik \u015foklar VIX\u2019te s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7ar; \u00f6rne\u011fin ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 gerilimlerde tek bir g\u00fcnde %12\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 veya vadeli kontratlar, yayg\u0131n piyasa korkusuna kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan bir koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 ve Japon yeni gibi klasik g\u00fcvenli liman para birimlerini tercih ediyoruz. Avustralya dolar\u0131\/ABD dolar\u0131 (AUD\/USD) gibi risk duyarl\u0131 paritelerde k\u0131sa pozisyon aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olmal\u0131y\u0131z. 2020 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasa \u00e7alkant\u0131s\u0131 gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f k\u00fcresel \u015foklarda AUD\/USD paritesi yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde gerilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131ndaki ilk etapta dikkat \u00e7eken d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen, bunu potansiyel bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Jeopolitik gerilim ve daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 enflasyonist bask\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131 uzun vadeli de\u011fer saklama arac\u0131 olarak temelden destekler. Piyasan\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman i\u015flevini yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla olas\u0131 bir toparlanmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD-\u0130ran restle\u015fmesi piyasay\u0131 sarst\u0131: risk-off dalgas\u0131yla S&P ve Nasdaq sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. WTI H\u00fcrm\u00fcz endi\u015fesiyle 91 dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131, alt\u0131n geriledi; dolar-yen-CHF \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Alt\u0131nda al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 konu\u015fuluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48546","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48546"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48546\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48546"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48546"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48546"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}