Kanada dolar\u0131, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli destek sonras\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc karar sonras\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. USD\/CAD yaz\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada 1,3925 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde daha \u00f6nce 1,3899 ile dip seviyeyi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. BoC, beklentilere paralel \u015fekilde politika faizini be\u015finci toplant\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste %2,25\u2019te sabit tuttu; zay\u0131f yurt i\u00e7i aktiviteye, ABD ticaret politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin s\u00fcregelen belirsizli\u011fe ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131, artan enerji maliyetlerinin di\u011fer t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair \u015fu ana kadar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kan\u0131t bulundu\u011funu belirtti ve gerekmesi halinde ad\u0131m atmaya haz\u0131r kal\u0131rken, sava\u015f\u0131n man\u015fet enflasyon \u00fczerindeki k\u0131sa vadeli etkisini \u201cg\u00f6z ard\u0131 etti\u011fini\u201d i\u015faret etti. Ba\u015fkan Tiff Macklem, faizlerde olas\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ko\u015fullara ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; enerjinin tetikledi\u011fi daha genel bir enflasyon dalgas\u0131n\u0131n, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon oda\u011f\u0131nda, art arda faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 gerektirebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve \u015fahin Fed beklentilerinin destekledi\u011fi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131, USD\/CAD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi korudu.<\/p>\n
BoC\u2019nin faizi %2,25\u2019te tutma karar\u0131 temkinli bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret ederken, bu tablo \u015fahin ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) beklentileriyle belirgin bi\u00e7imde tezat olu\u015fturuyor. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %3,50 seviyesindeki Fed Fonlama Faizi, ABD dolar\u0131 lehine anlaml\u0131 bir faiz fark\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Para politikas\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u015fu anda d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in temel itici g\u00fc\u00e7lerden biri.<\/p>\n
Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k son verilerde de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Kanada\u2019da GSYH 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda yaln\u0131zca %0,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD ekonomisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu 250 binlik sa\u011flam bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Bu temel ekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fma, USD\/CAD kurunda daha y\u00fcksek seviyeleri destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Kanada\u2019da man\u015fet enflasyon, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda seyreden petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle yukar\u0131 itilirken, BoC\u2019nin oda\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon olmaya devam ediyor. Son veriler \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,4\u2019te yatay seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu da politika yap\u0131c\u0131lara harekete ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce beklemek i\u00e7in alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor. \u00c7ekirdek fiyatlar h\u0131zlanmad\u0131k\u00e7a, k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir ekonomiyi daha da zora sokma riskini almak istemeyebilirler.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, USD\/CAD i\u00e7in en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn 1,4000 seviyesine ve \u00fczerine do\u011fru yukar\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Vadesi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 30 ila 60 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde dolacak USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u015flarken BoC\u2019nin beklemede kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 2014-2016 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde USD\/CAD paritesi 1,10\u2019un alt\u0131ndan 1,45\u2019in \u00fczerine kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tarihsel \u00f6rnekler, bu t\u00fcr politika farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n paritede kal\u0131c\u0131 ve trend niteli\u011finde hareketlere yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoC faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit tutarken CAD\u2019in deste\u011fi k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u015eahin Fed, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri ve jeopolitik risklerle USD\/CAD y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminde; 1,40+ hedefi ve 30-60 g\u00fcn vadeli call opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48542","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48542"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48542\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48542"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48542"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48542"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}