WTI, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla birlikte Petrol\u2019\u00fcn yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131na paralel olarak g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %2,33 art\u0131\u015fla 89,40 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Washington ile m\u00fczakerelerin t\u0131kanmaya devam etmesi halinde \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ilave askeri ad\u0131mlar\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fmede ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, bir ABD Apache helikopterinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hava savunma sistemleri, kontrol merkezleri ve g\u00f6zetleme radar tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 riskleri de oda\u011fa yerle\u015fti; uluslararas\u0131 Ham Petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda olas\u0131 aksamaya ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler artt\u0131. Veri taraf\u0131nda EIA, ABD Ham Petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 7,228 milyon varil azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (4 milyon varil d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k) bildirdi; \u00f6nceki haftada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f 7,974 milyon varildi. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan stoklar ile artan b\u00f6lgesel riskin birle\u015fimi, WTI\u2019nin 89 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131na destek verdi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut petrol fiyat g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn hem Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi hem de temelde s\u0131k\u0131 fiziksel arz taraf\u0131ndan beslendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, bu hafta 5,8 milyon varillik azal\u0131\u015fla yeniden teyit edilerek piyasaya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu kombinasyon, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda fiyat geri \u00e7ekilmelerinin muhtemelen al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda kesinti ya\u015fanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nemli riski h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Tarihsel olarak, bu kritik su yolundaki kal\u0131c\u0131 gerilimler ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131na 10-15 dolarl\u0131k bir risk primi eklemi\u015f; benzer bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc 2019\u2019daki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flarda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. S\u00fcregelen askeri pozisyon alma, bu primin h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ortadan kalkmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Arz risklerine ek olarak, yaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonunun zirvesine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep sinyalleriyle giriyoruz. ABD benzin talebi ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00fcnl\u00fck 9,5 milyon varilin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak mevsimsel bir zirveye ula\u015ft\u0131; bu da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketimin devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu mevsimsel talep bask\u0131s\u0131, temmuz boyunca stoklar\u0131n azalmaya devam etmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, fiyatlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 bir senaryoya konumlan\u0131yoruz. Olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015ftan kaynaklanabilecek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamaya imk\u00e2n verirken riski net bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, WTI\u2019de A\u011fustos ve Eyl\u00fcl vadeleri i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n tedirginli\u011fini yans\u0131tan CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) \u015fimdiden 42\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bu nedenle primler daha da artmadan \u00f6nce bu pozisyonlar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131n temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde tansiyon y\u00fckseliyor: WTI %2,33 primle 89,40 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran mesaj\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. EIA stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc fiyat\u0131 desteklerken OVX 42, volatiliteyi i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48541","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48541","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48541"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48541\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48541"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48541"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48541"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}