\u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in sanayi \u00fcretim de\u011feri Nisan\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda %4,2 artt\u0131 ve bir \u00f6nceki aydaki %2\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirdi. Bu hareket, d\u00f6nem boyunca daralmadan geni\u015flemeye ge\u00e7i\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k bazda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, son okuma Nisan\u2019da \u0130sve\u00e7 sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fcretim ko\u015fullar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6nceki ay\u0131n %-2\u2019lik verisi, %4,2\u2019ye h\u0131zlanan toparlanma i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma taban\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
\u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in sanayi \u00fcretimindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc toparlanmay\u0131 net bir \u201cal\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc\u201d (bullish) sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Nisan\u2019da %-2\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7rama, ekonominin piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha fazla temel g\u00fcce sahip oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu pozitif s\u00fcrpriz, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca k\u0131sa vadeli t\u00fcrev stratejilerimize y\u00f6n vermeli.<\/p>\n
Bu veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130sve\u00e7 Kronu\u2019nun (SEK) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. May\u0131s ay\u0131 enflasyon verisinin %2,1 ile gelmesi ve Riksbank\u2019\u0131n hedefinin hafif \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir merkez bankas\u0131 duru\u015funu ayr\u0131ca destekliyor. Bu nedenle EUR\/SEK paritesinde 11,40 seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rerek, Euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda SEK \u00fczerine al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Bu sanayi g\u00fcc\u00fc, \u00f6zellikle ihracat odakl\u0131 sanayi \u015firketleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere \u0130sve\u00e7 hisseleri i\u00e7in de olumlu bir kataliz\u00f6r. OMXS30 endeksi y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi ve bu veri bir sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015f aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131 besleyebilir. Bu ivmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in OMXS30 \u00fczerinde yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, \u00fcretim verilerinde sert pozitif s\u00fcrprizler hisse piyasas\u0131nda g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans d\u00f6nemlerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftur. 2023 sonlar\u0131nda benzer bir desen g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; bunun ard\u0131ndan 2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli gelmi\u015fti. Bu tarihsel emsal, hisse taraf\u0131nda al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc duru\u015fumuza ek g\u00fcven veriyor.<\/p>\n
Bir sonraki Riksbank para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 27 Haziran\u2019da planlanm\u0131\u015fken, volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile yap\u0131\u015fkan (inelastik) enflasyonun birle\u015fimi, bankan\u0131n karar\u0131n\u0131 daha az \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu durum, volatilite i\u015flemine f\u0131rsat sunuyor; en hassas d\u00f6viz pariteleri veya endeks opsiyonlar\u0131nda straddle gibi stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz veri: \u0130sve\u00e7 sanayi \u00fcretimi Nisan\u2019da ayl\u0131k %4,2 artt\u0131, %-2\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sildi. SEK i\u00e7in al\u0131m, EUR\/SEK\u2019te 11,40 alt\u0131 hedef; OMXS30\u2019da call. 27 Haziran Riksbank \u00f6ncesi volatilite\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47717,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48484"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48484\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47717"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}