EUR\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 1,1715 civar\u0131na geriledi. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 bir ate\u015fkese ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekliyor. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc daha sonra a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz karar\u0131 var.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump, iki ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeye y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler devam ederken \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ABD\u2019den istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. CNN, Pakistan\u2019daki arabulucular\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde revize edilmi\u015f (g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f) bir teklif sunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, ABD ablukas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e su yolunu a\u00e7mayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Bu durum belirsizli\u011fi y\u00fcksek tutuyor ve g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu, \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u201cpas ge\u00e7me\u201d (faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme) olur. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ileri d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin mesajlar\u0131 izleyecek.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) karar\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor. ECB\u2019nin faizi sabit tutup, ancak \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) bir duru\u015f sergilemesi ve Haziran ya da Temmuz\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kap\u0131 aralamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Goldman Sachs, Haziran ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de iki\u015fer 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bunun mevduat faizini yeniden %2,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019de Euro, d\u00f6viz (FX) i\u015flemlerinin %31\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu; g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem hacmi 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi. EUR\/USD, FX hacminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu temsil eder; EUR\/JPY %4, EUR\/GBP %3 ve EUR\/AUD %2.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki tabloya benzer \u015fekilde, jeopolitik riskin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelimi art\u0131rarak Euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyon yeniden y\u00fckselirken EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,05 civar\u0131nda zorlanmas\u0131, dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d cazibesini yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu haftaki merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in y\u00f6n a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutarak federal fonlama faizini %4,00-%4,25 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda korumas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Son enflasyon verileri, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu duru\u015f dolar\u0131 destekliyor; \u00f6zellikle ABD ekonomisi diren\u00e7 g\u00f6sterirken ve 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) %2,1 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken.<\/p>\n
Atlantik\u2019in di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ECB\u2019nin de mevduat faizini %3,00\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak zorluk farkl\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyon so\u011fusa da, zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2014\u00f6zellikle Almanya\u2019da imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralma) \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ay daralmay\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi\u2014\u201c\u015fahin\u201d \u00e7izgiyi savunmay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftiriyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, Euro\u2019da kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) uzun straddle veya strangle stratejileri etkili olabilir: Bu stratejiler, merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 sonras\u0131 y\u00f6n ne olursa olsun belirgin bir fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefler. Bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) %8,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bu belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Yine de s\u00fcrpriz bir karar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiili dalgalanma) daha da yukar\u0131 itebilir.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc (fiyat\u0131n hangi tarafa gidece\u011fine dair) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olanlar i\u00e7in daha olas\u0131 senaryo Euro\u2019da zay\u0131fl\u0131k. Faiz fark\u0131, ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirilerinin Alman Bund\u2019lar\u0131na (Almanya devlet tahvili) g\u00f6re 120 baz puandan fazla daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131yla, EUR\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mada pozitif \u201ccarry\u201d (faiz fark\u0131ndan do\u011fan getiriyi) destekliyor. Ancak k\u00fcresel gerginlikte beklenmedik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u201crahatlama rallisi\u201d (sert toparlanma) yaratabilir; bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli kontratlar (vadeli i\u015flem\/futures) veya forward (ileri tarihli kur sabitleme) pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimi kritik.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz kap\u0131da m\u0131? EUR\/USD 1,1715\u2019e gerilerken Orta Do\u011fu ate\u015fkes belirsizli\u011fi dolar\u0131 destekliyor. G\u00f6zler Fed faiz karar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan ECB\u2019de; opsiyonlarda oynakl\u0131k 8,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48209","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48209"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48209\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48209"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48209"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48209"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}