{"id":48199,"date":"2026-03-06T08:05:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T08:05:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/aud-usd-yaklasik-1-geriledi-07000-seviyesinin-altina-sarktiktan-sonra-07010-civarinda-seyrini-surduruyor-dusus-ust-uste-ikinci-seansa-tasindi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T08:05:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T08:05:08","slug":"aud-usd-yaklasik-1-geriledi-07000-seviyesinin-altina-sarktiktan-sonra-07010-civarinda-seyrini-surduruyor-dusus-ust-uste-ikinci-seansa-tasindi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/aud-usd-yaklasik-1-geriledi-07000-seviyesinin-altina-sarktiktan-sonra-07010-civarinda-seyrini-surduruyor-dusus-ust-uste-ikinci-seansa-tasindi\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 geriledi; 0,7000 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131ktan sonra 0,7010 civar\u0131nda seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci seansa ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) ak\u0131mlar\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklerken Avustralya Dolar\u0131 geriledi. AUD\/USD per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 d\u00fc\u015ferek 0,7000\u2019in alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 0,7010 civar\u0131na indi ve 0,7000 ile yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7150 aras\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 150 piplik (d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131; 0,0001) bantta hareket ediyor.\n\nAvustralya\u2019n\u0131n 4. \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019si (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,8 artt\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme %2,6 ile 2023 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. RBA (Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131) \u015fubatta faizleri %3,85\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Piyasalar martta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 olarak fiyatlarken, may\u0131sta %4,10\u2019a \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ise tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda (piyasa beklentisinin faiz ve fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131).\n\n

Enflasyon ve Enerji \u015eoku<\/h3>\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapanmas\u0131 (petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi dar ge\u00e7it) ve \u0130ran\u2019la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n alt\u0131nc\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcne girmesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ham petrol fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131, enflasyon beklentilerini etkiliyor. RBA\u2019n\u0131n enflasyon hedefi %2\u2013%3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda.\n\nABD\u2019de \u015fubat ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki i\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131; i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ana g\u00f6stergesi) beklentisi ocaktaki 130 binin ard\u0131ndan 60 bin civar\u0131nda. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) yetkilileri faizleri tart\u0131\u015fmaya devam ederken, bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde indirimlerin h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fcndemde oldu\u011funu i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nTeknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde AUD\/USD 0,7009 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Destekler 0,6960, 0,6920 ve 0,6890; diren\u00e7ler 0,7045, 0,7085 ve 0,7120. Demir cevheri Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat kalemi; y\u0131ll\u0131k 118 milyar dolar (2021 verisi) ve ana pazar \u00c7in.\n\nAvustralya Dolar\u0131 \u015fu anda z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda: Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iterken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 ekonomi daha y\u00fcksek seviyeleri i\u015faret ediyor. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileride teslimli standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, y\u00fckselen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131yor ve \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte tercih edilen) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekliyor. Bu karma\u015f\u0131k tablo, k\u0131sa vadede AUD y\u00f6n\u00fcnde net pozisyon almay\u0131 daha riskli h\u00e2le getiriyor.\n\n

RBA Toplant\u0131s\u0131 Riski<\/h3>\nAvustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 16-17 Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde belirsizlik \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 2025 4. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verileri ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d tonu (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n duru\u015f) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lsa da, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 ve bu haftaki ocak perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrpriz %0,2 daralma ekonomide so\u011fuma sinyali veriyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi ile zay\u0131flayan t\u00fcketici verisi aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, i\u015flemleri zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\nG\u00f6zler bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisine \u00e7evrildi; istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda belirgin yava\u015flama bekleniyor. Beklentiden zay\u0131f bir veri, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki son g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilir. Ancak \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi nedeniyle dolar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban talep yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu geli\u015fme, AUD\/USD\u2019nin kilit deste\u011fin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131na ya da toparlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek kritik bir e\u015fik olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nAvustralya Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer ba\u015fl\u0131k \u00c7in\u2019den geldi: Caixin \u0130malat PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 50 alt\u0131 daralma) 49,8\u2019e gerileyerek imalat taraf\u0131nda hafif daralmaya i\u015faret etti. Bunun sonucu olarak demir cevheri vadeli i\u015flemleri ton ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na \u00e7ekildi ve para birimi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir destek zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu durum, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fine dair soru i\u015faretleri do\u011furuyor.\n\nAUD\/USD bant i\u00e7inde kal\u0131rken \u00f6nemli veri ve toplant\u0131 riskleriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fundan, t\u00fcrev (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flemleri yapanlar oynakl\u0131k (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u201cStrangle\u201d (yukar\u0131 ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc iki opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131; farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla) stratejisinde, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (mevcut fiyattan uzak kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131) al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call\/put; belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131) kullanarak y\u00f6n\u00fc tahmin etmeden k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. B\u00f6ylece 0,7000\u20130,7150 band\u0131ndan net kopu\u015fta f\u0131rsat hedeflenir.\n\nD\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in, psikolojik 0,7000 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonu almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmaya daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon alma yoludur. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD istihdam verisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirse veya jeopolitik gerilim artarsa, parite son desteklerini h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde k\u0131rabilir. Bu strateji, bir haftay\u0131 biraz a\u015fan s\u00fcre sonra gelecek oynak RBA toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 (zarar opsiyon primiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sunar.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d modunda: Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi Dolar\u2019\u0131 desteklerken AUD\/USD 0,7000 alt\u0131nda zorlan\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc GSYH\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131n \u00c7in verisi zay\u0131f; g\u00f6zler ABD istihdam\u0131 ve RBA\u2019da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48199","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48199"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48199\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48199"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48199"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48199"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}