{"id":48188,"date":"2026-03-06T07:54:34","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:54:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dbs-ekonomisti-radhika-rao-fitchin-endonezyanin-bbb-kredi-notuna-iliskin-negatif-gorunumunu-degerlendiriyor-moodysnin-adimina-paralel-gorus-beli\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T07:54:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:54:34","slug":"dbs-ekonomisti-radhika-rao-fitchin-endonezyanin-bbb-kredi-notuna-iliskin-negatif-gorunumunu-degerlendiriyor-moodysnin-adimina-paralel-gorus-beli","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dbs-ekonomisti-radhika-rao-fitchin-endonezyanin-bbb-kredi-notuna-iliskin-negatif-gorunumunu-degerlendiriyor-moodysnin-adimina-paralel-gorus-beli\/","title":{"rendered":"DBS ekonomisti Radhika Rao, Fitch\u2019in Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n BBB kredi notuna ili\u015fkin \u201cnegatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u201d\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011ferlendiriyor; Moody\u2019s\u2019nin ad\u0131m\u0131na paralel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f belirtiyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Fitch Ratings, Moody\u2019s\u2019un benzer ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fclke kredi notu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cdura\u011fan\u201ddan \u201cnegatif\u201de \u00e7evirdi ve BBB notunu teyit etti. Fitch, artan politika belirsizli\u011fine ve karar alma yetkisinin daha fazla merkezile\u015fmesiyle (yetkilerin tek elde toplanmas\u0131yla) politika bile\u015fiminde (maliye ve para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n birlikte kullan\u0131m\u0131) tutarl\u0131l\u0131k ve g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fin zay\u0131flamas\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti.\n\nFitch\u2019e g\u00f6re %8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi; sosyal yard\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 ve maliye-para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feme (kamu harcamas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesi\/likiditenin artmas\u0131) ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde desteklenmek zorunda. Kurum, gelirlerde (vergi ve di\u011fer devlet gelirleri) ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131\u015f olmazsa bunun makroekonomik istikrara (enflasyon, kur, faiz dengesi) risk yaratabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.\n\n<h3>Mali \u00c7er\u00e7eve ve Politika G\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi<\/h3>\nFitch ayr\u0131ca 2026 yasama \u00f6ncelikleri (meclisin ele alaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ncelikli kanun g\u00fcndemi) i\u00e7inde yer alan Devlet Maliye Yasas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmesi plan\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Bu ad\u0131m\u0131n politika g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fini ve daha y\u00fcksek b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n (devletin gelir-gider fark\u0131n\u0131n) nas\u0131l finanse edilece\u011fine dair endi\u015feleri art\u0131rabilece\u011fini belirtti.\n\nNegatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, genellikle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 18\u201324 ay i\u00e7inde notla ilgili yeni bir ad\u0131m ihtimalinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de\u011fi\u015fimi ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimlerin, yerel piyasalarda \u201crahatlama rallisi\u201d (k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc toparlanma) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatmas\u0131; tahvil getirilerini (faizlerini) y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 ve para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu tablo, Rupiah\u2019\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Devlet Maliye Yasas\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin s\u00fcren tart\u0131\u015fmalar belirsizli\u011fi beslerken, USD\/IDR NDF (teslimats\u0131z vadeli d\u00f6viz s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi; vade sonunda d\u00f6viz teslimi yerine fark\u0131n nakit \u00f6dendi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) veya al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu sayede Rupiah\u2019daki olas\u0131 ek de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan yararlan\u0131l\u0131rken risk daha kontroll\u00fc y\u00f6netilebilir.\n\n<h3>Faiz ve Oynakl\u0131k Pozisyonlamas\u0131<\/h3>\n\u0130\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, Endonezya devlet tahvili getirilerinin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131, hatta daha da y\u00fckselmesini beklemesi gerekir. Enflasyonun %3,5\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckselmesiyle Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n) yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor; bu da faizlerin y\u00fcksek seyrini destekliyor. Bu nedenle faiz swap\u2019lar\u0131 (taraflar\u0131n sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizi takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u00e7inde \u201csabit \u00f6de-de\u011fi\u015fken al\u201d yap\u0131s\u0131, artan finansman maliyetlerine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge; fiyat\/kur\/faiz dalgalanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 risk azaltma) amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131labilir.\n\nMali disiplin (b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesini koruma) ve iddial\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleri etraf\u0131ndaki soru i\u015faretleri, hem d\u00f6viz hem faiz piyasalar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ortamda opsiyon s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri portf\u00f6yleri ani fiyat hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 korumada daha de\u011ferli olabilir. Tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (future; ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m kontrat\u0131) \u201cput\u201d (sat\u0131m opsiyonu; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, getirilerde (faizlerde) sert y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flayabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fitch\u2019ten Endonezya\u2019ya k\u00f6t\u00fc haber: BBB teyit, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm negatife d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Politika belirsizli\u011fi ve merkezile\u015fme g\u00fcveni zedeliyor; gev\u015feme bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor. Rupiah bask\u0131da, tahvil faizleri y\u00fcksek; hedge\/opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48188","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48188","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48188\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}