{"id":48185,"date":"2026-03-06T07:48:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:48:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-degisen-ticaret-kosullari-kanadanin-buyume-gorunumunu-neredeyse-etkilemiyor-imalatin-payi-kucuk-yatirimlar-zaten-zayif\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T07:48:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:48:58","slug":"td-securities-degisen-ticaret-kosullari-kanadanin-buyume-gorunumunu-neredeyse-etkilemiyor-imalatin-payi-kucuk-yatirimlar-zaten-zayif","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-degisen-ticaret-kosullari-kanadanin-buyume-gorunumunu-neredeyse-etkilemiyor-imalatin-payi-kucuk-yatirimlar-zaten-zayif\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities: De\u011fi\u015fen ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131 Kanada\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc neredeyse etkilemiyor; imalat\u0131n pay\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar zaten zay\u0131f"},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities, Kanada-ABD ticaret \u015fartlar\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ad\u0131mlar\u0131n, ili\u015fki belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmedik\u00e7e Kanada\u2019n\u0131n genel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmesinin zor oldu\u011funu belirtti. Kurum, imalat\u0131n Kanada \u00fcretiminin %10\u2019undan az\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011funu ve ticaret geriliminin ilk y\u0131l\u0131nda beklentiden daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini kaydetti.\n\nKurum, belirsizli\u011fin yat\u0131r\u0131m niyetlerini bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ayr\u0131ca \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ticaret kaynakl\u0131 aksamalardan \u00f6nce de zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Uzayan CUSMA g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve daha geni\u015f jeopolitik tablo da makroekonomik (\u00fclke \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde ekonomi) belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Enerji Fiyatlar\u0131 Kanada G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Destekliyor<\/h3>\nKurum, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son y\u00fckseli\u015fin olumsuz havay\u0131 k\u0131smen dengeledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131, Kanada piyasas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sm\u0131nda (yak\u0131n vadeli faizler) beklenen faiz indirimlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.\n\nKurum, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Tiff Macklem\u2019in 2026 i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek belirsizli\u011fi vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve para politikas\u0131 se\u00e7eneklerini a\u00e7\u0131k tuttu\u011funu belirtti. Jeopolitik ortam\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesi mevcut belirsizlik d\u00fczeyini koruyabilir.\n\nCUSMA (Kanada-ABD-Meksika Anla\u015fmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri man\u015fet \u00fcretiyor, ancak ticaret politikas\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin genel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi olas\u0131 de\u011fil. Kanada \u0130statistik Kurumu\u2019nun 2025 4. \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re imalat\u0131n GSYH i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 %9,8; bu oran tek ba\u015f\u0131na ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olacak kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fil. \u015eirket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 (makine, ekipman, tesis gibi harcamalar) 2025\u2019teki ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce de zay\u0131ft\u0131; bu belirsizlik yeni bir bask\u0131 unsuru de\u011fil.\n\nKanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fu anda kilit unsur, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f; bu art\u0131\u015f makroekonomik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 dengeliyor. WTI tipi ham petrol\u00fcn (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) 2026 \u015eubat\u2019ta varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla piyasa havas\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti ve y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen merkez bankas\u0131 faiz indirimi beklentilerinin \u00e7o\u011fu geri \u00e7ekildi. Ticaret hadlerindeki bu iyile\u015fme (ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithalata g\u00f6re daha iyi hale gelmesi) ekonomiye g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Faiz Piyasalar\u0131 BoC Patikas\u0131n\u0131 Yeniden Fiyatl\u0131yor<\/h3>\nFaiz i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, BoC\u2019nin yak\u0131n vadede gev\u015feme yapaca\u011f\u0131na dair pozisyonlar\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Gecelik endeks swap\u0131 (OIS: politika faizine ba\u011fl\u0131 swap; piyasadaki faiz beklentisini g\u00f6sterir) piyasas\u0131 art\u0131k temmuzdan \u00f6nce faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %25\u2019in alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu, y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndaki yakla\u015f\u0131k %75\u2019lik olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda Macklem\u2019den \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir bekleme (faizi sabit tutarken s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f mesaj\u0131) ihtimali dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131.\n\nMacklem\u2019in temkinli tonu ve jeopolitik ortam\u0131n bozuldu\u011funa vurgu yapmas\u0131, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 2025\u2019te de benzer \u015fekilde, \u00f6nemli veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda CAD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Bu ortam, bir sonraki T\u00dcFE (enflasyon) verisi veya BoC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde opsiyonlarla oynakl\u0131k almak (\u00f6r. straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynar) i\u00e7in daha elveri\u015fli.&#8221;&#8221;&#8221;\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrol rallisi Kanada\u2019y\u0131 yeniden oyuna soktu: TD Securities\u2019e g\u00f6re CUSMA\u2019daki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ad\u0131mlar b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u00e7eviremez; belirsizlik yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 frenlerken, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 BoC indirim beklentilerini siliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48185"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48185\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}