{"id":48177,"date":"2026-03-06T07:43:14","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:43:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/riskten-kacis-ve-guclu-abd-verileri-ortaminda-abd-dolari-guclenirken-aud-usd-07010-yakinlarina-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T07:43:14","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:43:14","slug":"riskten-kacis-ve-guclu-abd-verileri-ortaminda-abd-dolari-guclenirken-aud-usd-07010-yakinlarina-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/riskten-kacis-ve-guclu-abd-verileri-ortaminda-abd-dolari-guclenirken-aud-usd-07010-yakinlarina-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri ortam\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, AUD\/USD 0,7010 yak\u0131nlar\u0131na geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD paritesi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7010 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,95 geriledi. ABD Dolar\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri ve temkinli risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma iste\u011fi) sayesinde destek buldu.\n\nAvustralya\u2019n\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131 ticaret fazlas\u0131 3.373 milyon Avustralya dolar\u0131ndan 2.631 milyon Avustralya dolar\u0131na geriledi ve 3.900 milyon Avustralya dolar\u0131 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u0130hracat ayl\u0131k bazda (aydan aya) revize edilen %0,9 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %0,9 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130thalat ise revize edilen %1,8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften sonra %0,8 artt\u0131.\n\n

Avustralya B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve RBA Politikas\u0131<\/h3>\nDaha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, Avustralya ekonomisinin (GSYH: bir \u00fclkenin \u00fcretti\u011fi toplam mal ve hizmet de\u011feri) 4. \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Bu oran %0,6 beklentinin \u00fczerinde. Y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme %2,6 ile son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA), \u015eubat ay\u0131nda politika faizini %3,85\u2019e y\u00fckseltti.\n\nABD\u2019de i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (ilk ba\u015fvurular) 213 bin ile 215 bin beklentinin alt\u0131nda geldi. S\u00fcregelen ba\u015fvurular (devam eden ba\u015fvurular) 1,868 milyona y\u00fckseldi. \u015eirketlerin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma planlar\u0131 \u015eubat\u2019ta 48.307 oldu; Ocak\u2019taki 108.435\u2019in ve bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceki 172.017\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u0130\u015fe al\u0131m planlar\u0131 ise y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %56 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\n\nADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 (kamu d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015firketlerin istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) \u015eubat\u2019ta 63 bin artt\u0131; 50 bin beklentinin \u00fczerinde ve revize edilen 11 binin de \u00fcst\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. ISM Hizmet PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eder) 56,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; beklenti 53,5\u2019ti.\n\nCME FedWatch (vadeli i\u015flemlere g\u00f6re Fed beklentilerini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge), Temmuz\u2019da faiz de\u011fi\u015fmeme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50,4 olarak fiyatlad\u0131; ilk faiz indirimi Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bekleniyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim, ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapanmas\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle (belirsizlikte daha \u00e7ok tercih edilen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebi destekledi. \u0130ran ise g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere dair haberleri reddetti.\n\n

Ba\u015fl\u0131ca Riskler ve Yakla\u015fan Veriler<\/h3>\nPiyasalar Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131 ve Ocak ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015f verilerini izleyecek.\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l, 2025\u2019in ba\u015flar\u0131nda bu d\u00f6nemde Avustralya dolar\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 0,7010 seviyesine yak\u0131n gerilemi\u015fti. Bu hareket, sa\u011flam ABD verileri ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimlerin tetikledi\u011fi g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle desteklenmi\u015fti. Bu tablo, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir ABD ekonomisinin dolar\u0131n de\u011ferini ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etkileyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.\n\nBug\u00fcn benzer ba\u015fl\u0131klar yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, AUD\/USD daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde, 0,6650 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u015eubat 2026 ABD istihdam raporu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi; 250 binin \u00fczerinde yeni istihdam yarat\u0131ld\u0131. Bu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizi daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi ve Avustralya dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.\n\nAvustralya ekonomisinde ise yava\u015flama sinyalleri var. Ocak 2026 perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yatay kald\u0131, 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde enflasyon %3,4\u2019e geriledi. RBA\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini birka\u00e7 ayd\u0131r %4,35\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131yla iki merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark ABD dolar\u0131 lehine. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar AUD\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirlenen fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Opsiyon, zorunluluk de\u011fil \u201chak\u201d verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrerse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir; ayn\u0131 zamanda mevcut uzun (al\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak (hedge: riski dengeleme) i\u00e7in de kullan\u0131labilir.\n\nVIX (piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dayal\u0131 \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 18 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in opsiyon primleri (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek. Maliyeti azaltmak i\u00e7in \u201cbear put spread\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik put stratejisi; bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir put satmak) tercih edilebilir. Bu strateji k\u00e2r\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar ancak ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr.\n\nTersine, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD enflasyon verilerinde beklenmedik zay\u0131flama sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu riske kar\u015f\u0131, vadeden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money call; mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir koruma sa\u011flayabilir. B\u00f6ylece Fed beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimin tetikleyebilece\u011fi ani yukar\u0131 hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcvence olu\u015fur.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dikkat: AUD\/USD 0,7010\u2019dan 0,6650\u2019ye gerilerken bask\u0131 art\u0131yor! Zay\u0131f Avustralya d\u0131\u015f ticareti ve RBA-Fed faiz fark\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. Opsiyonlarla korunma g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48177"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48177\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}