{"id":48174,"date":"2026-03-06T07:40:07","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:40:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/scotiabank-abd-iran-geriliminin-baslamasindan-bu-yana-kanada-dolari-abd-dolari-karsisinda-direncli-seyrini-koruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T07:40:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:40:07","slug":"scotiabank-abd-iran-geriliminin-baslamasindan-bu-yana-kanada-dolari-abd-dolari-karsisinda-direncli-seyrini-koruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/scotiabank-abd-iran-geriliminin-baslamasindan-bu-yana-kanada-dolari-abd-dolari-karsisinda-direncli-seyrini-koruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Scotiabank: ABD\/\u0130ran geriliminin ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana Kanada Dolar\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda diren\u00e7li seyrini koruyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Kanada Dolar\u0131 (CAD), ABD\/\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yatay kalan tek b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimi oldu. Piyasalarda riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, G10 d\u00f6viz hareketleri genel olarak tarihsel (ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemlerde s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclen) kal\u0131plara geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc.\n\nK\u0131sa vadeli faiz piyasalar\u0131nda Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) i\u00e7in n\u00f6tr (faizlerde belirgin art\u0131\u015f ya da indirim beklenmeyen) bir patika fiyatlan\u0131yor. Getiri farklar\u0131 (iki \u00fclke tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) CAD ile bir miktar kopuk seyrederken, CAD ile ham petrol aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fki zay\u0131f kald\u0131.\n\nScotiabank\u2019\u0131n USD\/CAD i\u00e7in \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201d (model hesaplamas\u0131na dayal\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k denge seviye) tahmini 1,3599; 1,36\u2019n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda. USD\/CAD iki seanst\u0131r temkinli (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlanan) i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201cshooting star\u201d doji mumunun ard\u0131ndan sat\u0131\u015flar istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u201cDoji mum\u201d a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f ve kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n birbirine \u00e7ok yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu, karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret eden mum grafi\u011fi t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr; \u201cshooting star\u201d ise genellikle y\u00fckseli\u015f sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve geri \u00e7ekilme riskini art\u0131ran bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmd\u00fcr.\n\nG\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI; fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 ve g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik g\u00f6sterge) 50 seviyesinin daha alt\u0131na sark\u0131yor; bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Mevcut seviye ile 1,35\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck band\u0131 aras\u0131nda destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunabilece\u011fi seviye) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Yak\u0131n vadede 1,3580\u20131,3680 band\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nT\u00fcrev (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CAD\u2019de daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7lenme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almay\u0131 destekliyor. CAD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda USD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option; belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan dolar alma hakk\u0131) almak bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc do\u011frudan yans\u0131tman\u0131n bir yolu. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) \u015fu anda birka\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcklerine yak\u0131n ve sakin; bu da y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon kurma maliyetini g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutuyor.\n\nHam petrol ile Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel korelasyonu (iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birlikte hareket etme e\u011filimi) art\u0131k daha az g\u00fcvenilir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. WTI ham petrol fiyat\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalsa bile CAD belirgin g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanamad\u0131. Bu durum, kur \u00fczerinde belirleyici unsurun faiz farklar\u0131 (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 faiz oran\u0131 fark\u0131) oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nDaha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak, maliyeti kontrol etmek i\u00e7in \u201cbull call spread\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015f ama\u00e7l\u0131 opsiyon stratejisi; daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, nisan sonu vadeli 1,3900 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p ayn\u0131 vadede 1,4100 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (maksimum kayb\u0131 ba\u015ftan belli) y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir. Bu yap\u0131, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lma (fiyat\u0131n sert \u015fekilde yeni b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7mesi) varsaymadan mevcut ortamdan yararlan\u0131r.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jeopolitik \u015fokta CAD ayakta kald\u0131: USD\/CAD\u2019de bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Scotiabank adil de\u011fer 1,3599. RSI zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, 1,35 deste\u011fi ince. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k, call veya bull spreadi caziple\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48174","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48174"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48174\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}