{"id":48171,"date":"2026-03-06T07:37:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:37:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobanktan-jane-foley-boenin-faiz-indirimi-beklentileri-azalirken-risklere-ragmen-sterlin-son-donemde-euroyu-geride-birakti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T07:37:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:37:45","slug":"rabobanktan-jane-foley-boenin-faiz-indirimi-beklentileri-azalirken-risklere-ragmen-sterlin-son-donemde-euroyu-geride-birakti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobanktan-jane-foley-boenin-faiz-indirimi-beklentileri-azalirken-risklere-ragmen-sterlin-son-donemde-euroyu-geride-birakti\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019tan Jane Foley: BoE\u2019nin faiz indirimi beklentileri azal\u0131rken, risklere ra\u011fmen sterlin son d\u00f6nemde euroyu geride b\u0131rakt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"Sterlin son d\u00f6nemde Euro\u2019ya k\u0131yasla daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi. Bu hareket, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz indirece\u011fi beklentilerinin azalmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Rabobank, iki para birimini de \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rm\u0131yor (g\u00fcvenli liman: piyasa stresinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131, daha az dalgalanan varl\u0131k).\n\nRabobank, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1\u20133 ayda EUR\/GBP paritesinin 0,87 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Banka, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda (H2: y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci alt\u0131 ay\u0131) \u0130ngiltere\u2019de siyasi risk, daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131 (inat\u00e7\u0131) enflasyon nedeniyle paritenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 gitmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\n

Energy Prices And Inflation Outlook<\/h3>\nY\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyona etkisi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksaman\u0131n ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131. Rabobank\u2019\u0131n enerji ekibi, aksaman\u0131n devam etmesini bekliyor.\n\nRabobank, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 endeksi, enflasyonun temel g\u00f6stergesi) enflasyonunun daha \u00f6nce tahmin edildi\u011fi gibi %2\u2019nin biraz \u00fczerine d\u00f6nmek yerine %2,5\u2019e gerilemesini bekliyor. Ard\u0131ndan, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte (Q3: Temmuz\u2013Eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6nemi) T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,75\u2019e y\u00fckselmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nMay\u0131s ay\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere\u2019de yerel se\u00e7imler ile \u0130sko\u00e7ya ve Galler\u2019de parlamento se\u00e7imleri var. Rabobank, \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin zay\u0131f bir sonu\u00e7 almas\u0131n\u0131n Ba\u015fbakan Starmer\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 parti i\u00e7i liderlik tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilece\u011fini, bunun da sterlini y\u0131l ortas\u0131na ve sonras\u0131na kadar zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.\n\n

Political Risk And Range Breakout<\/h3>\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %2 hedefe geri d\u00f6nmedi. \u0130ngiltere Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS) son verileri, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,4 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve Banka\u2019n\u0131n hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, BoE\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (restriktif duru\u015f: enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) korumas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak sterlini destekliyor.\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l, May\u0131s 2025 yerel se\u00e7imleri ve sterlini zay\u0131flatabilecek olas\u0131 bir liderlik tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu. Bu risk geride kalsa da sterlinin siyasi haberlere hassasiyeti ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu (GSYH\u2019nin neredeyse %100\u2019\u00fc; GSYH: gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la, ekonominin toplam b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) \u00f6nemli bir uyar\u0131. Mali istikrar (kamu finansman\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi) konusundaki soru i\u015faretleri para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.\n\n2025\u2019te EUR\/GBP\u2019nin kademeli olarak 0,87\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyordu; ancak parite daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131 ve \u015fu s\u0131ralar 0,8550 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon s\u00fcrerken siyasi riskler de devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu banttan olas\u0131 bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa (range breakout: fiyat\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na hareket etmesi) kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 (opsiyon: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u201cParan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re hemen k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7meyen) EUR\/GBP al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde sterlin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir haz\u0131rl\u0131k olabilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sterlin, BoE faiz indirimi beklentilerinin s\u00f6nmesiyle euroyu geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Rabobank, 1-3 ay EUR\/GBP 0,87 band\u0131; H2\u2019de siyasi risk, enerji, inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48171"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48171\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}