{"id":48161,"date":"2026-03-06T07:17:55","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:17:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/irlandanin-ceyreklik-gsyhsi-dorduncu-ceyrekte-38e-gerileyerek-onceki-03-seviyesinden-daha-da-kotulesti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T07:17:55","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:17:55","slug":"irlandanin-ceyreklik-gsyhsi-dorduncu-ceyrekte-38e-gerileyerek-onceki-03-seviyesinden-daha-da-kotulesti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/irlandanin-ceyreklik-gsyhsi-dorduncu-ceyrekte-38e-gerileyerek-onceki-03-seviyesinden-daha-da-kotulesti\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7eyreklik GSYH\u2019si d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte -%3,8\u2019e gerileyerek \u00f6nceki -%0,3 seviyesinden daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti"},"content":{"rendered":"\u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 (GSYH: ekonomide \u00fcretilen t\u00fcm mal ve hizmetlerin toplam de\u011feri) d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7eyreklik bazda %3,8 geriledi. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekteki %0,3\u2019l\u00fck kayb\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.\n\nSon veri, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re daha sert bir daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor. A\u00e7\u0131klamada ba\u015fka ayr\u0131nt\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.\n\n\u0130rlanda\u2019da 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan -%3,8\u2019lik sert GSYH daralmas\u0131n\u0131, o tarihten beri g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz yava\u015flaman\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi (gelecekteki gidi\u015fat\u0131 erken i\u015faret eden veri) olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Ge\u00e7en ay gelen en g\u00fcncel veriler de bu e\u011filimi do\u011frulad\u0131: 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH -%1,1 ile yeniden, ancak daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, darald\u0131. Bu devaml\u0131l\u0131k, \u00e7ok uluslu \u015firketlerin (\u00fclkeleraras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketler) performans\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olumsuz etkinin ge\u00e7ici olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nBu s\u00fcregelen zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (AMB) \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor ve AMB\u2019nin daha temkinli bir duru\u015fa ge\u00e7ti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u015eubat 2026 i\u00e7in son Avro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun %2,1 ile hedefin (genelde %2) biraz \u00fczerinde gelmesiyle, piyasalar yaz bitmeden bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor (piyasa beklentisinin fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131). Bu da k\u0131sa vadeli Avrupa devlet tahvillerinin getirilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor (tahvil getirisi: tahvilin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz\/kazan\u00e7 oran\u0131; fiyat y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e getiri d\u00fc\u015fer).\n\nD\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, avro i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131: fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisi) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Avro\/dolar paritesi 1,0700 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorlan\u0131yor. EUR\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmek veya ay\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 spread\u2019i (bear call spread: ayn\u0131 vadede iki al\u0131m opsiyonu kullanarak, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu almak; s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\/ yatay senaryosuna oynayan strateji) gibi opsiyon stratejileri kullanmak uygun olabilir. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l sonundaki 1,0500 destek seviyesine (destek: fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu seviye) olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nBu hava, Avrupa hisselerine de yans\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130rlanda verileri \u00e7o\u011fu zaman k\u00fcresel teknoloji ve ila\u00e7 sekt\u00f6rlerinin sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca son Almanya imalat PMI verisi (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: \u015firket anketlerinden \u00fcretilen, 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralma sinyali veren g\u00f6sterge) 49,8\u2019e gerileyerek hafif daralmaya i\u015faret etti. Bu nedenle, geni\u015f Avrupa hisse pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak (hedge: olumsuz hareket riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in sigorta niteli\u011finde i\u015flem) yerinde olur. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan koruma i\u00e7in Euro Stoxx 50 endeksi \u00fczerine sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u015eok daralma sinyali: \u0130rlanda GSYH\u2019si \u00e7eyrekte %3,8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; \u00e7ok uluslu kaynakl\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k kal\u0131c\u0131. AMB\u2019ye indirim bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor, tahvil getirileri geriliyor; EUR\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Avrupa hisselerinde hedge ihtiyac\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48161","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48161"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48161\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}