{"id":48157,"date":"2026-03-06T07:15:02","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:15:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/danske-arastirmacilari-avro-bolgesi-issizliginin-italya-ispanya-ve-fransa-kaynakli-artisla-61e-yukseldigini-bunun-ecbnin-sahin-durusunu-destekledigini-belirtti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T07:15:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:15:02","slug":"danske-arastirmacilari-avro-bolgesi-issizliginin-italya-ispanya-ve-fransa-kaynakli-artisla-61e-yukseldigini-bunun-ecbnin-sahin-durusunu-destekledigini-belirtti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/danske-arastirmacilari-avro-bolgesi-issizliginin-italya-ispanya-ve-fransa-kaynakli-artisla-61e-yukseldigini-bunun-ecbnin-sahin-durusunu-destekledigini-belirtti\/","title":{"rendered":"Danske ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131, Avro B\u00f6lgesi i\u015fsizli\u011finin \u0130talya, \u0130spanya ve Fransa kaynakl\u0131 art\u0131\u015fla %6,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini; bunun ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funu destekledi\u011fini belirtti."},"content":{"rendered":"Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde i\u015fsizlik Ocak\u2019ta %6,1 ile rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye indi; Aral\u0131k\u2019taki %6,3\u2019ten geriledi. \u0130\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 184 bin azald\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 \u0130talya, \u0130spanya ve Fransa\u2019dan geldi.\n\nVeriler s\u0131k s\u0131k revize edildi\u011fi (sonradan g\u00fcncellendi\u011fi) i\u00e7in Ocak\u2019taki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f daha sonra de\u011fi\u015febilir. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) i\u00e7in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya daha yatk\u0131n, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede daha s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f) bir sinyal olarak yorumlanabilir.\n\n<h3>2026\u2019da \u0130\u015fsizlik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nDanske Research, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc talebi (\u015firketlerin yeni \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ihtiyac\u0131) zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a 2026\u2019da i\u015fsizli\u011fin daha yava\u015f d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyor. \u0130stihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f) G\u00fcney Avrupa\u2019da, \u00f6zellikle \u0130spanya\u2019da s\u00fcrmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\n\u015eubat ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin nihai Euro B\u00f6lgesi PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eder) 51,9 olarak teyit edildi. Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131 (hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki faaliyet g\u00f6stergesi) 51,9\u2019a yukar\u0131 revize edilirken imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 (fabrika\/\u00fcretim faaliyet g\u00f6stergesi) 50,8\u2019de kald\u0131; bu tablo \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nOcak i\u00e7in bildirilen %6,1\u2019lik rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fsizlik, piyasalar\u0131n ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin kalmas\u0131 gerekece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu, \u00fccret bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (maa\u015f art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu yukar\u0131 itmesi) s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi ve enflasyonun hedefe inmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak faiz piyasalar\u0131nda (faiz beklentilerinin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa), ilk faiz indirimi beklentisinin 2026\u2019ya daha da \u00f6telenmesi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nAncak bu t\u00fcr veriler s\u0131k revize edildi\u011fi i\u00e7in tek bir sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 anlam y\u00fcklememek gerekir. \u015eubat 2026 i\u00e7in Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00f6nc\u00fc enflasyon tahmini %2,4 geldi. Bu, dezenflasyonun (enflasyonun h\u0131z kesmesi) s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ancak s\u00fcre\u00e7te kat\u0131l\u0131k (enflasyonun yava\u015f ve zor geri gelmesi) olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisiyle \u00e7eli\u015fiyor ve ECB\u2019nin man\u015fet i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011finden daha az endi\u015feli olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n<h3>Faiz Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve G\u00f6reli De\u011fer<\/h3>\nG\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ile so\u011fuyan enflasyon aras\u0131ndaki bu \u00e7eli\u015fki nedeniyle, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde (faize ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler ve opsiyonlar gibi ara\u00e7lar) oynakl\u0131k (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. 2025 ortas\u0131nda benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisi tahvil sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (tahvil fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer, faiz y\u00fckselir) tetiklemi\u015f, ard\u0131ndan gelen zay\u0131f verilerle bu hareket h\u0131zla geri d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u015eu anda oynakl\u0131k satmak (opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k beklentisiyle pozisyon almak) riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; yeni veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara a\u00e7\u0131k, bant i\u00e7inde yatay seyir (belirli bir aral\u0131kta gidip gelme) senaryosuna g\u00f6re konumlanmak daha uygun olabilir.\n\n\u015eubat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 51,9 ile \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyretmesi de i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n kademeli so\u011fuyaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. G\u00fcney Avrupa\u2019da hizmet a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ekonomilerin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, \u00e7ekirdek \u00fclkelerde imalat odakl\u0131 yap\u0131n\u0131n daha zay\u0131f olmas\u0131 f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u201cspread i\u015flemleri\u201dne (iki varl\u0131k\/\u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki faiz getirisi fark\u0131na oynayan pozisyonlar) bakabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin b\u00f6lgesel fark\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in Alman varl\u0131klar\u0131na k\u0131yasla \u0130spanyol varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 tercih edebilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde i\u015fsizlik %6,1\u2019le dip yapt\u0131: ECB\u2019ye \u015fahin mesaj! 184 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u0130talya-\u0130spanya-Fransa\u2019dan. Revizyon riski s\u00fcrerken PMI 51,9; ilk faiz indirimi 2026\u2019ya \u00f6telenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48157"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48157\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}