{"id":48153,"date":"2026-03-06T07:11:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:11:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bny-stratejisti-geoff-yu-avrupa-gaz-vadeli-kontratlari-ecbnin-son-tahminlerindeki-varsayimlarin-otesinde-sert-sekilde-yeniden-fiyatlandi-bu-da-politika-patikasini-zorlayabilir\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T07:11:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:11:59","slug":"bny-stratejisti-geoff-yu-avrupa-gaz-vadeli-kontratlari-ecbnin-son-tahminlerindeki-varsayimlarin-otesinde-sert-sekilde-yeniden-fiyatlandi-bu-da-politika-patikasini-zorlayabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bny-stratejisti-geoff-yu-avrupa-gaz-vadeli-kontratlari-ecbnin-son-tahminlerindeki-varsayimlarin-otesinde-sert-sekilde-yeniden-fiyatlandi-bu-da-politika-patikasini-zorlayabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY stratejisti Geoff Yu: Avrupa gaz vadeli kontratlar\u0131, ECB\u2019nin son tahminlerindeki varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde sert \u015fekilde yeniden fiyatland\u0131; bu da politika patikas\u0131n\u0131 zorlayabilir"},"content":{"rendered":"BNY stratejisti Geoff Yu, Avrupa do\u011fal gaz **vadeli i\u015flem** (gelecekte teslim edilecek gaz i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n son tahminlerinde kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyelerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Yu, bunun Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunu ECB\u2019nin **baz senaryosu**nun (ana tahmin) \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fini ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme riskleri artsa bile **faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131** olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltebilece\u011fini belirtti.\n\nDo\u011fal gaz vadeli fiyat **e\u011frisi** (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki fiyatlar\u0131n toplam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc) daha \u00f6nce \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki be\u015f \u00e7eyrekte s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederken, ECB\u2019nin baz senaryosu bu y\u0131l daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 varsay\u0131yordu. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc itibar\u0131yla g\u00f6sterge e\u011fri, ge\u00e7en cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne g\u00f6re ortalama baz fiyat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %45 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve ilk varsay\u0131m\u0131n da %60 \u00fczerine yakla\u015ft\u0131.\n\n<h3>Gaz Fiyatlar\u0131 \u015eimdi Baz Senaryonun \u00c7ok \u00dczerinde<\/h3>\nYu, bu fiyatlar\u0131n tarihsel da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mda **en y\u00fcksek dilimlere** (neredeyse zirve seviyeler) denk geldi\u011fini ve HICP\u2019nin (Euro B\u00f6lgesi **T\u00dcFE**\u2019si; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) baz senaryonun yakla\u015f\u0131k **100 baz puan** (1 puan) \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu nedenle piyasan\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskini, hatta di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131ndan daha erken olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.\n\nYu ayr\u0131ca Euro B\u00f6lgesi varl\u0131klar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck **reel faizlere** (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f faiz) dikkat \u00e7ekti.\n\nAvrupa do\u011fal gaz vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki ani yeniden fiyatlama, ECB politikas\u0131n\u0131n seyrini h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Hollanda TTF g\u00f6stergesi (Avrupa\u2019da do\u011fal gaz i\u00e7in ana referans fiyat) megavat-saat ba\u015f\u0131na 45 euronun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n son tahminlerine g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n neredeyse %60 \u00fczerine geldi. Bu art\u0131\u015f, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 zaten rahats\u0131z eden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015ft\u0131.\n\nMevcut vadeli fiyat e\u011frisi, Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP\u2019nin ECB\u2019nin baz varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k **1 puan** \u00fczerinde kalabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, \u00f6zellikle \u015eubat 2026 \u00f6nc\u00fc enflasyon tahmininin %2,4 ile **inat\u00e7\u0131** (h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmeyen) bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm vermesi ve %2 hedefe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn gecikmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir sapma. Enerji kalemi, 2025 boyunca enflasyonu yukar\u0131 iten unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u015fimdi yeniden temel risk haline geliyor.\n\n<h3>Piyasalar Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na Y\u00f6neliyor<\/h3>\nSonu\u00e7 olarak piyasa, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini h\u0131zla fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, \u00f6nceki beklentilere g\u00f6re keskin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. Bu durum, **stagflasyon** (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) riskinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. B\u00f6yle bir tabloda ECB, yava\u015flayan ekonomiye ra\u011fmen para politikas\u0131n\u0131 **s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak** (faizi art\u0131rmak veya finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rmak) zorunda kalabilir; bu da b\u00f6lge varl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumlu olmayabilir. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, **faiz swaplar\u0131**nda (gelecek faiz \u00f6demelerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye yarayan t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; y\u0131l ortas\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 silinmi\u015f durumda.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gaz \u015foku geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc: Avrupa TTF vadeli fiyatlar\u0131 ECB varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 %60 a\u015ft\u0131. BNY\u2019ye g\u00f6re bu, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunu 1 puan yukar\u0131 itip stagflasyon riskini art\u0131rarak faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 tetikliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48153"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48153\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}