{"id":48145,"date":"2026-03-06T07:06:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:06:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/patterson-ve-manthey-rusyanin-yonlendirmeleri-ve-korfez-lng-arzindaki-aksamalarin-surmesiyle-avrupada-gaz-fiyatlarinin-yukselebilecegi-uyarisinda-bulundu\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T07:06:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:06:10","slug":"patterson-ve-manthey-rusyanin-yonlendirmeleri-ve-korfez-lng-arzindaki-aksamalarin-surmesiyle-avrupada-gaz-fiyatlarinin-yukselebilecegi-uyarisinda-bulundu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/patterson-ve-manthey-rusyanin-yonlendirmeleri-ve-korfez-lng-arzindaki-aksamalarin-surmesiyle-avrupada-gaz-fiyatlarinin-yukselebilecegi-uyarisinda-bulundu\/","title":{"rendered":"Patterson ve Manthey, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirmeleri ve K\u00f6rfez LNG arz\u0131ndaki aksamalar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesiyle Avrupa\u2019da gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu"},"content":{"rendered":"Avrupa do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131, Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin\u2019in Rusya\u2019n\u0131n gaz\u0131 AB\u2019den ba\u015fka pazarlara y\u00f6nlendirebilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Buna ek olarak, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden k\u00fcresel LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kesintiye u\u011fruyor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n AB\u2019ye gaz sevkiyat\u0131 son y\u0131llarda zaten azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; AB\u2019nin getirece\u011fi yasakla birlikte Nisan 2026\u2019dan 2027 sonuna kadar Rus gaz\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131n daha da d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor.\n\nAB\u2019de do\u011fal gaz depolar\u0131 %30\u2019un alt\u0131nda ve 2022\u2019nin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine yak\u0131n seviyelerde. Bu durum, depolar\u0131n yeniden dolduruldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde (yaz aylar\u0131nda stok biriktirme s\u00fcreci) arz taraf\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 piyasay\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor.\n\n

Arz Riskleri Art\u0131yor<\/h3>\n2025\u2019te AB, Rusya\u2019dan yakla\u015f\u0131k 38 bcm (milyar metrek\u00fcp) do\u011fal gaz ve LNG ithal etti. Bu miktar, AB\u2019nin toplam gaz ve LNG ithalat\u0131n\u0131n %12\u2019sine denk geliyor. Bunun 20 bcm\u2019i LNG, 18 bcm\u2019i ise TurkStream (T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019ya uzanan boru hatt\u0131) \u00fczerinden gelen boru hatt\u0131 gaz\u0131yd\u0131.\n\nLNG arz\u0131, ba\u015fl\u0131ca risk olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201cesnek kargolar\u0131n\u201d (y\u00f6n\u00fc ba\u015fka pazarlara \u00e7evrilebilen spot LNG sevkiyatlar\u0131) yerine yenisini bulmak, k\u00fcresel piyasa s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kken daha zor olabiliyor. \u015eu anda y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k 110 bcm\u2019lik Basra K\u00f6rfezi arz\u0131 etkilenmi\u015f durumda. Bu da Avrupa i\u00e7in alternatifleri azaltarak k\u0131sa vadede TTF\u2019yi (Hollanda sanal do\u011fal gaz i\u015flem noktas\u0131; Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n referans gaz fiyat\u0131) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.\n\nAvrupa do\u011fal gaz\u0131nda belirgin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin birikti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n AB\u2019ye sevkiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka pazarlara y\u00f6nlendirme tehdidi, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki devam eden aksakl\u0131klar nedeniyle zaten gergin olan k\u00fcresel LNG piyasas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 zamana denk geliyor. Bu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na tepki olarak Hollanda TTF\u2019de en yak\u0131n vadeli kontrat (front month; vadesi en yak\u0131n olan futures s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) \u20ac55\/MWh seviyesinin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131.\n\nBu arz endi\u015fesi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stok seviyeleriyle daha da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Gas Infrastructure Europe verilerine g\u00f6re depolama doluluk oran\u0131 \u015fu anda %29,5. Bu seviye, 2022 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki seviyelere tehlikeli bi\u00e7imde benziyor. O d\u00f6nemdeki s\u0131k\u0131 arz ko\u015fullar\u0131, sonras\u0131nda sert fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcrecin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\n\n

Piyasa Dalgalanmas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nPotansiyel arz kayb\u0131 \u00f6nemli; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2025\u2019te Rusya\u2019dan yakla\u015f\u0131k 38 bcm ithalat yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Boru hatt\u0131 \u00fczerinden gelen 18 bcm\u2019i ikame etmek zor olsa da as\u0131l bask\u0131 noktas\u0131 20 bcm\u2019lik LNG. Basra K\u00f6rfezi kaynakl\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k 110 bcm\u2019lik eksilmenin konu\u015fuldu\u011fu bir k\u00fcresel piyasada bu hacmin kayb\u0131, al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in ciddi bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131r.\n\nT\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler), bu tablo \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131na ve TTF fiyatlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimin g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yak\u0131n vadeli opsiyonlarda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseliyor. Bu ortamda uzun call pozisyonlar\u0131 (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan al\u0131m opsiyonu) veya call spread\u2019ler (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte kullanarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) olas\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Mart 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda benzer temel dinamiklerle fiyatlar birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k \u20ac80\/MWh seviyesinden \u20ac200\/MWh\u2019nin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Avrupa gaz\u0131nda alarm: Putin\u2019in sevkiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka pazarlara y\u00f6nlendirme mesaj\u0131 ve Basra K\u00f6rfezi LNG aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 TTF\u2019yi \u20ac55\/MWh \u00fcst\u00fcne itti. Depolar %29,5; yaz stoklama \u00f6ncesi arz riski, oynakl\u0131k ve fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48145"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48145\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}