TD Securities, alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclenlere benzer k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fczeltme risklerine dikkat \u00e7ekerken, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ve platin grubu metallere (PGM) ili\u015fkin tahminlerini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti. Banka, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki \u00e7eyre\u011fe y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, daha uzun vadeli beklentisini de art\u0131rd\u0131; revizyonu, k\u00fcresel ekonomideki iyile\u015fmeyle birlikte alt\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen g\u00fcce dair beklentilere ba\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, arz\u0131n zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fi ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir zeminde g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ve platinin a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6nmesini bekliyor. G\u00fcncellenen duru\u015f, her iki metalde de piyasa dengelerinin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na; nihai kullan\u0131m ve finansal talebin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine do\u011fru evrilen ko\u015fullara dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmelerin al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Piyasa, alt\u0131na benzer d\u00fczeltme riskleriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olsa da g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn temel dinamikleri belirgin bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu temel senaryo, b\u00fcy\u00fcyen arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yla destekleniyor. Silver Institute\u2019un son raporu, \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u0131lda da yap\u0131sal bir a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 teyit ederken, 2026\u2019da 215,3 milyon ons arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131, fiyatlar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek unsuru.<\/p>\n
Platinde de tablo b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde benzer ve de\u011ferli metallerde daha geni\u015f bir e\u011filime i\u015faret ediyor. World Platinum Investment Council\u2019\u0131n 2026 1\u00c7 raporu, derinle\u015fen arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekerek y\u0131l geneli i\u00e7in 476 bin ons a\u00e7\u0131k projekte etti. Bu a\u00e7\u0131k, maden \u00fcretiminin yatay kalmas\u0131 ve otomotiv ile sanayi sekt\u00f6rlerinden gelen talebin artmas\u0131yla besleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu talep, toparlanan k\u00fcresel ekonomi taraf\u0131ndan destekleniyor. K\u00fcresel imalat PMI\u2019lar\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay y\u00fckselirken, J.P.Morgan K\u00fcresel \u0130malat PMI May\u0131s 2026\u2019da 51,2\u2019ye ula\u015farak geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etti. K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki son \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 izleyen d\u00f6nemde artacak sanayi faaliyeti de bu metallere y\u00f6nelik talebi daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.450 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyreden alt\u0131n\u0131 takip etmesi bekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, de\u011ferli metal bo\u011fa piyasalar\u0131nda alt\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterme e\u011filiminde; alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f rasyosunun mevcut yakla\u015f\u0131k 80:1 seviyesinden s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma potansiyeli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu da g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, alt\u0131nda s\u00fcren g\u00fcce kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 bir oynak (leveraged) strateji h\u00e2line getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm kapsam\u0131nda, beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call) de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Yaz sonu veya d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek vadeli kontratlar, piyasa a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ve ekonomik toparlanman\u0131n fiyatlar \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131 i\u00e7in zaman tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Z\u0131mni volatilite (implied volatility) h\u00e2len makul seviyelerde; bu da pozisyon in\u015fas\u0131 i\u00e7in iyi bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli bir geri \u00e7ekilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) ile hedge etmeyi ya da daha b\u00fcy\u00fck uzun pozisyonlar a\u00e7madan \u00f6nce fiyat\u0131n kritik destek seviyelerine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesini beklemeyi de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu dengeli yakla\u015f\u0131m, yak\u0131n vadeli riski y\u00f6netirken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc beklentiye y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
TD Securities\u2019ten de\u011ferli metallerde \u00e7ifte mesaj: K\u0131sa vadede d\u00fczeltme riski s\u00fcrerken g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ve platinde tahminler yukar\u0131 revize edildi. Arz a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131, toparlanan ekonomi ve talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yukar\u0131 potansiyeli destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47855,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47968","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47968"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47968\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47855"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47968"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47968"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47968"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}