USD\/JPY\u2019de bir hafta ile \u00fc\u00e7 ay vadeler aras\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli ima edilen volatilite, paritenin 160,0 seviyesini yeniden test etmesine ra\u011fmen, G10 genelindeki volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumlu \u015fekilde geriledi. Bu durum, opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden artan FX m\u00fcdahale riskini yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasalar, yenin daha fazla zay\u0131flamas\u0131na olas\u0131 bir tavan olarak Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; 16 Haziran\u2019da bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in fiyatlamaya 19 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n nisan\u2013may\u0131s i\u015flemleri 2004\u2019ten bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcdahale olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131; ancak bu temponun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin zor oldu\u011fu ve \u201cserbest dalgal\u0131\u201d stat\u00fcy\u00fc korumak i\u00e7in IMF\u2019nin alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k hareketli pencerede en fazla \u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fcdahale epizodu y\u00f6nlendirmesiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Yine de 160,60 civar\u0131ndaki \u00f6nceki tetikleyici art\u0131k ge\u00e7erli olmayabilir: ima edilen tolerans band\u0131n\u0131n bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde, muhtemelen 162\u2013163 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Haziran ay\u0131ndaki mevsimsel yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc yeni testler i\u00e7in alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY k\u0131sa vadeli volatilitesinin parite yeniden 160\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken ger\u00e7ek riski yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite yakla\u015f\u0131k %7,5 seviyesinde; bu, 2024 ilkbahar\u0131ndaki son b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclen %12 \u00fczeri seviyelerle keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor. Bu da opsiyonlar\u0131n, ani ve sert bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na k\u0131yasla \u015fu anda g\u00f6rece ucuz fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, 16 Haziran\u2019daki BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n piyasalar\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zece\u011fine inan\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu, s\u00fck\u00fbnet hissi yarat\u0131rken, b\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m\u0131n yenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc durdurmaya yetece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Ancak bizce bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, pariteyi yukar\u0131 iten temel bask\u0131y\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediyor.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililerin son b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcdahale turunda yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 milyar dolar harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131, bunun da uzun vadede s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi zor bir tempo oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Bu nedenle bu kez daha y\u00fcksek bir seviyeye tolerans g\u00f6sterebileceklerini; m\u00fcdahale \u00f6ncesinde paritenin 162 veya 163 band\u0131na do\u011fru ilerlemesine izin verebileceklerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 160 seviyesindeki eski \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi\u201d art\u0131k tetikleyici olmayabilir.<\/p>\n
Haziran, tarihsel olarak yen i\u00e7in zay\u0131f bir ay; veriler USD\/JPY\u2019nin son on haziran\u0131n sekizinde y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite fiyatlamas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya straddle gibi stratejilerde f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fe pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, yetkililerin nihayet ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 halinde olu\u015fabilecek sert bir harekete kar\u015f\u0131 da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olma imk\u00e2n\u0131 veriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 160\u2019\u0131 test ederken bile k\u0131sa vadeli ima edilen volatilite d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; opsiyonlar m\u00fcdahale riskini fiyatlam\u0131yor. BoJ haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 tavan g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; m\u00fcdahale band\u0131 162-163\u2019e kayabilir, call\/straddle f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47761,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47967","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47967"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47967\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47761"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47967"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47967"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47967"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}