{"id":47965,"date":"2026-06-02T16:57:59","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T16:57:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/enflasyon-ve-orta-dogu-risklerinin-golgesinde-warshun-ilk-fomc-toplantisi-yaklasirken-dolar-yatay-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-02T16:57:59","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T16:57:59","slug":"enflasyon-ve-orta-dogu-risklerinin-golgesinde-warshun-ilk-fomc-toplantisi-yaklasirken-dolar-yatay-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/enflasyon-ve-orta-dogu-risklerinin-golgesinde-warshun-ilk-fomc-toplantisi-yaklasirken-dolar-yatay-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyon ve Orta Do\u011fu risklerinin g\u00f6lgesinde Warsh\u2019un ilk FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken dolar yatay seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Haziran 2026\u2019ya girilirken FX maj\u00f6r pariteler bant i\u00e7inde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; piyasalar, Ortado\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 risk man\u015fetlerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimi, Federal Rezerv liderli\u011finde yakla\u015fan de\u011fi\u015fimle birlikte fiyatl\u0131yor. Bir sonraki odak noktas\u0131, Kevin Warsh ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak ilk toplant\u0131 olan 16\u201317 Haziran FOMC. Toplant\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyon dinamiklerine tepki verdi\u011fi ve politika kredibilitesinin yeniden mercek alt\u0131na al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme denk geliyor.<\/p>\n

Nisan T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, enerji bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131labilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik piyasa s\u00f6ylentileri k\u0131sa vadede yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 tetikledi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi may\u0131s ortas\u0131nda %4,0\u2013%4,1 band\u0131na t\u0131rmand\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemler bu y\u0131l Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %30 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Jerome Powell 31 May\u0131s\u2019ta 2026 John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage \u00d6d\u00fcl\u00fc\u2019ne ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na at\u0131fta bulundu; ayn\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131kta gelecek bir Y\u00fcksek Mahkeme karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde.<\/p>\n

Belirsizlik Ortam\u0131nda Dolar Bekleme Modunda<\/h3>\n

Haziran 2026\u2019ya girerken ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizlikler nedeniyle \u201cbekleme modunda\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa, yeniden canlanan enflasyon endi\u015feleri ile yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn izleyece\u011fi politika hatt\u0131n\u0131n belirsizli\u011fi aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu karars\u0131zl\u0131k, yak\u0131n vadede dolar\u0131n ne yukar\u0131 ne a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde belirgin bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m yapmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Temel gerilim, sert veriler ile piyasa beklentileri aras\u0131nda. Nisan ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi %3,8 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirken 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,0\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ancak vadeli piyasalar bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini sadece %30 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu kopukluk, piyasan\u0131n \u015fahin s\u00f6yleme haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funu fakat yeni Fed\u2019in bunu eyleme d\u00f6k\u00fcp d\u00f6kmeyece\u011fi konusunda ikna olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Bu belirsizli\u011fin opsiyon piyasas\u0131na da yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; zira CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) may\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki dip seviyelerinden 18,5\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Bu, trader\u2019lar\u0131n sert bir harekete kar\u015f\u0131 giderek daha fazla koruma sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi de (may\u0131s ay\u0131nda ekonominin 250.000 gibi sa\u011flam bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaydetti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi) Fed \u00fczerindeki \u015fahin tonda ileti\u015fim kurma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130lk Warsh FOMC \u00d6ncesinde Temkin H\u00e2kim<\/h3>\n

Tarihsel olarak, yeni bir Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk birka\u00e7 toplant\u0131s\u0131 temkinle kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131r; t\u0131pk\u0131 Powell\u2019\u0131n 2018\u2019de Yellen\u2019\u0131n yerine ge\u00e7mesi d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fu gibi. Piyasalar, yeni liderin politika e\u011filimi ve ileti\u015fim tarz\u0131na dair net bir sinyal alana kadar y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama e\u011filimindedir. Bu emsal, dolar\u0131n 17 Haziran\u2019daki bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar bant hareketini koruyabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u00f6n yerine volatiliteyi i\u015flemeyi daha do\u011fru yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. EUR\/USD gibi maj\u00f6r paritelerde straddle veya strangle alarak fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na pozisyonlan\u0131yoruz. Bu strateji, Warsh\u2019\u00fcn nihayet yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirmesiyle her iki y\u00f6nde de gelebilecek b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar Haziran 2026\u2019ya bantta giriyor: Ortado\u011fu riskleri ve Fed\u2019de Warsh d\u00f6nemi fiyatlan\u0131yor. Enflasyon %3,8, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4 \u00fcst\u00fc, VIX y\u00fckseli\u015fte; 16\u201317 Haziran FOMC \u00f6ncesi volatilite \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47965","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47965"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47965\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47965"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47965"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47965"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}