TD Securities, negatif arz \u015foklar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 y\u00fckselen enflasyon beklentilerinin getiri e\u011frilerini yukar\u0131 itmesi ve dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutmas\u0131 gerek\u00e7esiyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki \u00e7eyre\u011fe ili\u015fkin alt\u0131n tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca 2026 sonlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da fiyatl\u0131yor. Banka, ham petrol\u00fcn mevcut varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki seviyelerinden sert y\u00fckselmesi halinde alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.000\u20134.200 dolar\/ons destek band\u0131na do\u011fru \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir senaryoya dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Daha ileri vadede ise TD Securities, uzun d\u00f6nem projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 revize ederek 2027 2. \u00e7eyrek itibar\u0131yla ortalama alt\u0131n fiyat hedefini 5.350 dolar\/ons seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. G\u00fcncellenen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesinin ard\u0131ndan enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hafifleyece\u011fi; bunun da faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesine ve dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na alan a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 ile \u201cfinansal bask\u0131lama\u201d (financial repression) ve jeopolitik risk kaynakl\u0131 daha geni\u015f pozisyonlanman\u0131n talep dinamiklerini desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n\u0131n belirgin r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine maruz kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret eden son veriler, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisini %5,1\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131rken ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni 108 seviyesine g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu tablo, getiri sa\u011flamayan alt\u0131n gibi varl\u0131klar\u0131 \u015fimdilik daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, 2026\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli ile n\u00f6tr aras\u0131 bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6zellikle ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda, 4.000\u20134.200 dolar band\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131mlar\u0131nda veya bear put spread kurulmas\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, olas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in riskin \u00f6nceden tan\u0131mland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem sunar.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, 1980\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131 gibi y\u00fcksek reel faiz d\u00f6nemleri alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zorlay\u0131c\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. CME FedWatch arac\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00f6stermesiyle, piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131 bu \u00f6rne\u011fe benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyor. Bask\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken gelir yaratmak ad\u0131na, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte 2027\u2019ye do\u011fru daha ileri vadede, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Jeopolitik gerilimlerin azalmas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in yeniden daha gev\u015fek bir politika duru\u015funa d\u00f6nmesiyle mevcut ters r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n tersine d\u00f6nmesi bekleniyor. 5.350 dolar hedefi do\u011frultusunda olas\u0131 bir hareketi kar\u015f\u0131lamak \u00fczere, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 5.000 dolar civar\u0131nda olan LEAPS gibi uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kademeli olarak biriktirmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadede r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine: TD Securities, y\u00fckselen enflasyon beklentileri, artan tahvil getirileri ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar nedeniyle tahminleri k\u0131st\u0131; 4.000\u20134.200 riskini vurgulad\u0131. Ancak 2027\u2019de 5.350 hedefiyle y\u00fckseli\u015f bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47833,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47963","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47963"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47963\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47833"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}