Alt\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc toparlanarak Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti ve yeniden 4.500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. XAU\/USD, 4.540 dolar \u00fczerindeki denemeyi kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131lamamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4.530 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, \u0130srail ile Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n k\u0131smi bir ate\u015fkes \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019nun Beyrut\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131 planlar\u0131n\u0131 ask\u0131ya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fi belirtilirken, daha geni\u015f risk i\u015ftah\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalsa da bu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tuttu. ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015f durumda kal\u0131rken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kapal\u0131 ve yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr bir plan bulunmuyor.<\/p>\n
Dikkat, May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin fabrika verilerinin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir aktiviteye i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD verilerine \u00e7evrildi. Haftan\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde gelecek istihdam verileri zincirinin bir sonraki halkas\u0131 JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 raporu olurken, zirvede Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) yer al\u0131yor; bu veri, Fed\u2019in politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da odak noktas\u0131. Teknik tarafta bant hareketi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: 4 saatlik RSI\u2019\u0131n 55 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi ve MACD\u2019nin pozitif olmas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Diren\u00e7 4.590 dolarda; yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m 4.645 dolar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Destekler ise 4.445 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.370 dolar ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kanal\u0131n\u0131n taban\u0131 olan 4.340 dolar seviyesinde izleniyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n, \u00e7eli\u015fen dinamikler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015farak dar bir i\u015flem band\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki ate\u015fkes yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, \u0130ran\u2019la s\u00fcren gerilim ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7eki\u015fme, \u015fimdilik fiyatlaman\u0131n teknik seviyeler ve k\u0131sa vadeli haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla \u015fekillenece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta bekledi\u011fimiz ana g\u00fcndem, JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 ile ba\u015flayacak ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri. Bu veriler kritik; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentisini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkiliyor. Nitekim Nisan 2024 JOLTS verisinin a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 8,059 milyona geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ederek Fed\u2019i faiz indirimine y\u00f6neltebilecek bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi bu so\u011fuma e\u011filimini do\u011frularsa, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun da alt\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00f6nemler alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a olumlu seyretti. Bu nedenle potansiyel bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131ma haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131yor, mevcut yatay seyrin ge\u00e7ici bir duraklama oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130stihdam verileri \u00f6ncesindeki belirsizlik nedeniyle, beklenen volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 opsiyonlarla de\u011ferlendirmeyi hedefliyoruz. CBOE Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ) \u015fu anda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor; ancak bordro verisi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda sert bir s\u0131\u00e7rama bekliyoruz. Y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle al\u0131mlar\u0131 etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n
Uygulama stratejimizi belirlerken yerle\u015fik teknik seviyeleri referans al\u0131yoruz. 4.590 dolar direncinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareket, muhtemelen al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bullish) pozisyonlara\u2014\u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden\u2014ekleme yapmam\u0131z i\u00e7in tetikleyici olacakt\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 4.445 dolar deste\u011finin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ederek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma amac\u0131yla sat\u0131\u015f (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn arka plan\u0131nda, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve s\u00fcreklilik arz eden talep bulunuyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde toplam 290 ton alt\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulayarak son y\u0131llardaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131m e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Bu istikrarl\u0131 al\u0131mlar, fiyat i\u00e7in uzun vadeli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel olu\u015fturuyor ve agresif bi\u00e7imde k\u0131sa pozisyon almaya temkinli yakla\u015fmam\u0131za neden oluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131n, ate\u015fkes haberleriyle 4.500 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcne toparland\u0131; g\u00f6zler JOLTS ve NFP\u2019de. DXY bask\u0131da. Teknikte 4.590 diren\u00e7, 4.445 destek. Opsiyonla volatilite stratejisi; merkez bankas\u0131 talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47830,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47961"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47961\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}