Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde may\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc T\u00dcFE (HICP) enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,2 ile beklentilere paralel gelirken, nisan ay\u0131ndaki %3 seviyesinden y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7ekirdek HICP ise %2,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak %2,4\u2019l\u00fck piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ve \u00f6nceki %2,2\u2019nin yukar\u0131s\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ayl\u0131k bazda man\u015fet fiyatlar %0,1 artarken, \u00e7ekirdek fiyatlar %0,3 y\u00fckseldi. Veri, Eurostat taraf\u0131ndan \u201c\u00f6nc\u00fc\u201d olarak nitelendirildi ve harmonize g\u00f6stergeyi ayl\u0131k olarak yay\u0131mlayan kurum taraf\u0131ndan Sal 02 Haz 2026 09:00 tarihinde payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Veri sonras\u0131 EUR\/USD 1,1640 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc 1,1631 kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n hafif \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Piyasalar, gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131da Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (ECB) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelme ihtimaline daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veriyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enerji kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131larla da destekleniyor. Grafiklerde EUR\/USD 1,1641 civar\u0131nda izlenirken, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 1,1656 seviyesinde ve RSI 46,7\u2019de bulunuyor; diren\u00e7 1,1656\u2019da, ard\u0131ndan 29 May\u0131s zirvesi 1,1685\u2019te izlenirken, destek 21 May\u0131s dibi 1,1576\u2019da ve daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 1,1500 seviyesinde i\u015faret ediliyor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn 2 Haziran 2026 oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, beklentinin \u00fczerindeki \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verisi bizim i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir sinyal. %2,5\u2019lik bu oran\u0131 tek seferlik bir geli\u015fme olarak de\u011fil, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde altta yatan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funun teyidi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu da Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) kredibilitesini korumak i\u00e7in harekete ge\u00e7ece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin gelecek haftaki politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131k g\u00fcndemimizin ana ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131. Y\u00f6netim Konseyi\u2019ndeki baz\u0131 \u00fcyelerden gelen son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar piyasay\u0131 zaten \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu veri ise bunun i\u00e7in adeta \u201cm\u00fckemmel bir gerek\u00e7e\u201d sunuyor. Para piyasalar\u0131, 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta yaln\u0131zca %60 iken \u015fimdi %85 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin 2022-2023 d\u00f6neminde enflasyonda \u201cgeriden geldi\u011fi\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlamak gerekir. Kurum, ayn\u0131 hatay\u0131 tekrarlamaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak isteyecektir; bu da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 uygulamaya koyma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tarihsel ba\u011flam, g\u00fcvercin bir s\u00fcrprizi \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, piyasan\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 Euro\u2019nun potansiyel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1640 civar\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemde yatay seyretmesi, olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma \u00f6ncesinde f\u0131rsat sunuyor. ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir harekete pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,1700 civar\u0131nda olan ve haziran sonu vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi planl\u0131yoruz. Bu strateji, ECB\u2019den gelebilecek \u015fahin bir karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar. RSI\u2019\u0131n 46,7 ile i\u015faret etti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck momentum, toplant\u0131ya yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a volatilite artmadan \u00f6nce bu pozisyona girilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019da temel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olsa da, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 1,1656 civar\u0131ndaki teknik direncini kabul etmek gerekiyor. Bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, paritenin 1,1576\u2019ya do\u011fru destek testini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Bu nedenle opsiyon stratejimiz, temel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle i\u015flemeye olanak tan\u0131yan bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon s\u00fcrprizi: HICP %3,2\u2019ye, \u00e7ekirdek %2,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Piyasalar ECB\u2019de 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; EUR\/USD 1,1640\u2019ta, diren\u00e7 1,1656-1,1685.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47957"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47957\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}