Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde m\u00fctevaz\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korudu ancak Hizbullah ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda var\u0131lan k\u0131smi ate\u015fkesin g\u00fcvenli liman ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na (USD) olan talebi azaltmas\u0131yla \u00f6nceki seanstaki dalgalanma zirvesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. USD\u2019deki geri \u00e7ekilme k\u00fcl\u00e7eye bir miktar destek verirken, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik, enflasyon endi\u015feleri ve ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak getirisi olmayan alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam\u0131n\u0131 frenledi. G\u00f6zler g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 dahil ABD verilerine \u00e7evrilirken, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporunun k\u0131sa vadeli USD y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirlemesi bekleniyor; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelecek yeni geli\u015fmeler oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli paralel kanal i\u00e7inde ve d\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte 200 periyotluk Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k: G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 49 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama Iraksama (MACD) negatif b\u00f6lgeye hafif\u00e7e kayd\u0131. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.615,35 dolar ve ard\u0131ndan 4.619,67 dolar; kanal \u00fcst band\u0131 ise 4.655,17 dolar civar\u0131nda. Destek, alt kanal s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 olan yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.320,15 dolar seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki k\u0131smi ate\u015fkesi alt\u0131n i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir destek olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. As\u0131l odak, belirsizli\u011fini koruyan ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yeniden alevlenme ihtimali; bu da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde gerilemesini engelleyebilir. Bu arka plan, alt\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olabilece\u011fine ve temkinle de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, alt\u0131n gibi getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan giderek daha elveri\u015fsiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin son T\u00dcFE verisi enflasyonun %3,8\u2019de kalmaya devam etti\u011fini ve bunun Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi; bu da merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %5,75 seviyesindeki faizlerle \u015fahin duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131 alt\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 maliyetli k\u0131l\u0131yor; zira yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar devlet tahvillerinden daha iyi getiri elde edebiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: ciddi jeopolitik \u00e7alkant\u0131lara ra\u011fmen, Fed\u2019in agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 nihayetinde alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019ni (VIX) izliyoruz; endeks \u015fu anda 22 ile y\u00fcksek seyrederek ABD-\u0130ran g\u00fcndemine dair tedirginli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor, ancak k\u00fcl\u00e7eye g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131n\u0131 yaratacak t\u00fcrden sistemik bir pani\u011fe i\u015faret etmiyor. Bu da alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda bask\u0131n belirleyicinin para politikas\u0131 olmaya devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisinde. Nisan\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rakamlara benzer bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, Fed\u2019in y\u00fcksek faizleri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse kesinle\u015ftirerek dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve alt\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu veri etraf\u0131nda belirgin bir oynakl\u0131k bekliyoruz; a\u00e7\u0131klama, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar\u0131n tonunu belirleyecek.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrevler cephesinde mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Mevcut i\u015flem kanal\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak \u015fekilde, kritik teknik destek seviyesi olan 4.320 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, altta yatan negatif e\u011filimden faydalanmak i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca 4.620 dolar civar\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olu\u015fabilecek y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, vadeli i\u015flemlerde k\u0131sa pozisyon i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Teknik grafik belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 trend g\u00f6steriyor ve bu seviye, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 bile\u015fimi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 ani bir gerilime kar\u015f\u0131 riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirlerimizi kanal \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131n hemen \u00fczerindeki 4.655 dolar civar\u0131na yerle\u015ftiririz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda temkinli toparlanma: ate\u015fkes USD talebini azalt\u0131rken, Fed\u2019in y\u00fcksek faiz-enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler JOLTS ve Cuma NFP\u2019de. Teknikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kanal\u0131; 4.620 diren\u00e7, 4.320 kritik destek. Put\/short \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47955","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47955"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47955\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47955"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47955"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47955"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}