Avrupa Parlamentosu\u2019nun ticaret komitesi, Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri men\u015feli geni\u015f bir \u00fcr\u00fcn yelpazesine uygulanan Avrupa Birli\u011fi g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren mevzuata destek verilmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kulland\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, AB-ABD ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n AB taraf\u0131ndan hayata ge\u00e7irilmesini ilerletirken, blo\u011fun ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n 4 Temmuz uyum son tarihini kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da s\u00fcreci ray\u0131nda tutuyor; b\u00f6ylece Atlantik \u00f6tesinde k\u0131sa vadede bir g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifesi gerilimi ya\u015fanmas\u0131 riski azal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda, komite karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan euroda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Buna ra\u011fmen EUR\/USD yaz\u0131n\u0131n kaleme al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1647 seviyesinde, %0,1 art\u0131da i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Parlamentosu komitesinin ABD tarifelerini indirme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki oyu, euroya ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmdeki riskleri belirgin bi\u00e7imde azalt\u0131yor. EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1647\u2019ye hafif y\u00fckseli\u015fini, 4 Temmuz son tarihi \u00f6ncesinde olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareketin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n son verileri Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun may\u0131sta %2,6 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011funa i\u015faret ederken, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz indirimi bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor; bu durum da pariteyi destekleyici bir unsur.<\/p>\n
Avrupa hisselerine daha yap\u0131c\u0131 bak\u0131yoruz; \u00f6zellikle de bu ticari gerilim nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalan Alman ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131na. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7eyrekte Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019ye ihracat\u0131 %1,9 geriledi; bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tarife tehditlerine ba\u011fl\u0131yoruz. 2018-2019 d\u00f6nemine d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, benzer yumu\u015fama s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinde Alman DAX endeksinin sert y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tarihsel emsal sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret ihtilaf\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi, piyasa volatilitesini de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Euro Stoxx 50 Volatilite Endeksi (VSTOXX) h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 14 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, \u00f6nemli bir kuyruk riskinin ortadan kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bu seviye y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Temmuz son tarihi yakla\u015f\u0131rken, geni\u015f Avrupa endekslerinde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put yaz\u0131m\u0131 gibi stratejilerle volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 taraf\u0131nda bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Oda\u011f\u0131n, art\u0131k bertaraf edilen tarifelerin ba\u015fl\u0131ca hedefi olan Avrupa otomotiv sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Volkswagen ve BMW gibi \u015firketler gelirlerinin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ABD pazar\u0131ndan elde ederken, may\u0131s ay\u0131 otomotiv sat\u0131\u015f verileri Kuzey Amerika talebinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanmaya da i\u015faret ediyor. Bu rahatlama rallisine kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 bi\u00e7imde maruz kalmak i\u00e7in, s\u00f6z konusu hisselerde uzun (long) call spread pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 etkin bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz hamle: AP ticaret komitesi ABD men\u015feli \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde AB g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na destek verdi; 4 Temmuz tarifesiz uzla\u015f\u0131 ihtimali artt\u0131. Euro yatay, ECB indirimi bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor; Alman ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47949\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}