\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin ithalat\u0131 nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda geriledi ve bir \u00f6nceki ayki 21.282m seviyesinden 19.188m\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu hareket, mart ay\u0131ndaki daha y\u00fcksek okuman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00fclkeye giri\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc ticaret ak\u0131mlar\u0131nda bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, ithalat\u0131n ay i\u00e7inde 2.094m azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. De\u011fer baz\u0131nda nisan ay\u0131ndaki 19.188m\u2019lik seviye, \u00f6nceki 21.282m ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sat\u0131n al\u0131nan mallara y\u00f6nelik talebin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130svi\u00e7re ithalat\u0131ndaki son sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, i\u00e7 talepte belirgin bir so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, \u0130svi\u00e7re ekonomisinin daha \u00f6nce \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yava\u015fl\u0131yor olabilece\u011fine dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal. Bunu tek seferlik bir veri noktas\u0131 olarak de\u011fil, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekte zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nc\u00fc bir g\u00f6sterge olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ekonomik yava\u015flama, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015f benimsemesini olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Son verilerin may\u0131s enflasyonunun %1,2\u2019ye geriledi\u011fini ve bunun merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesiyle, faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131 artacak. Yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali ise bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan art\u0131k fiilen g\u00fcndemden \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Bu do\u011frultuda, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n farkl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6zellikle euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131nda zay\u0131fl\u0131k bekliyoruz. Bunu fiyatlamak ad\u0131na, 1,00 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareketi hedefleyen kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla EUR\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye odaklan\u0131yoruz. Bu opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatilite \u015fimdiden %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da piyasan\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketi fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Yava\u015flama \u0130svi\u00e7re \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 da etkileyecek ve i\u00e7 piyasadaki hisse senedi piyasas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan h\u00e2le getirecek. Swiss Market Index\u2019te (SMI) i\u00e7 t\u00fcketime ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u015firketler tahminlerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonlar g\u00f6rebilir. Bu potansiyel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in SMI \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bir hedge stratejisi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, \u0130svi\u00e7re i\u00e7 verilerinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemler, SNB\u2019nin g\u00fcvercinle\u015fmesiyle birlikte frang\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yava\u015flayan \u0130svi\u00e7re ile daha diren\u00e7li Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131ndaki mevcut ayr\u0131\u015fma, bu tarihsel paralelli\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde daha zay\u0131f bir frank ve daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir \u0130svi\u00e7re hisse piyasas\u0131 senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ayarlamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: \u0130svi\u00e7re ithalat\u0131 nisanda 21.282m\u2019den 19.188m\u2019ye indi. \u0130\u00e7 talep so\u011fuyor, SNB\u2019de g\u00fcvercinle\u015fme ve faiz indirimi bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor. EUR\/CHF y\u00fckseli\u015fi, SMI\u2019de k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k; opsiyonlu hedge g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47937","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47937"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47937\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47937"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47937"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47937"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}