ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABC News\u2019e yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, ate\u015fkesi uzatmak ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mak \u00fczere \u0130ran\u2019la \u201c\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta i\u00e7inde\u201d bir anla\u015fma bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar, \u0130srail g\u00fc\u00e7leri ile L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki Hizbullah\u2019\u0131 i\u00e7eren gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 durdurmak i\u00e7in devreye girmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Trump, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin h\u00e2l\u00e2 baz\u0131 ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu\u2019yu arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Beyrut\u2019a y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fck bir bask\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesini istedi\u011fini, \u0130srail birliklerinin geri \u00e7evrildi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Hizbullah daha sonra L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyindeki \u0130srail hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik birka\u00e7 sald\u0131r\u0131 \u00fcstlendi. \u0130srail ordusu ise L\u00fcbnan\u2019dan \u0130srail topraklar\u0131na at\u0131lan iki m\u00fchimmat\u0131n engellendi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Piyasalarda, yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %4,35 art\u0131\u015fla 90,65 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eli\u015fkili haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n iyimserlikle de\u011fil belirsizlikle y\u00f6nlendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ba\u015fkan\u0131n s\u00f6zleri gerilimin azalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etse de, s\u00fcren asker\u00ee hareketlilik ve m\u00fcttefiklerden gelen \u00e7eli\u015fkili mesajlar farkl\u0131 bir tablo \u00e7iziyor. Bu da petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki man\u015fetle sert \u015fekilde dalgalanabilece\u011fi klasik bir y\u00fcksek volatilite ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n \u015f\u00fcphecili\u011fi fiyatlamaya da yans\u0131yor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda z\u0131mni volatilitenin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) muhtemelen 50 seviyesinin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu seviye belirgin piyasa stresi ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yaln\u0131zca vadeli kontrat al\u0131p satmak gibi y\u00f6nsel pozisyonlar\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu paterni daha \u00f6nce, 2015 \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te g\u00f6rd\u00fck; ilerleme ya da ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k s\u00f6ylentilerinin her biri ham petrol fiyat\u0131nda keskin hareketlere yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6neme ait tarihsel veriler, anla\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 netle\u015ftik\u00e7e ve piyasa \u0130ran arz\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlad\u0131k\u00e7a WTI\u2019\u0131n nihayetinde %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir anla\u015fma imzalan\u0131rsa, benzer \u015fekilde sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u015fimdi de g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Riskler son derece y\u00fcksek; zira H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fczerg\u00e2h konumunda. Yeniden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n garanti alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131, piyasay\u0131 arz ve g\u00fcvenle besleyerek WTI\u2019\u0131 muhtemelen yeniden 80 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine, hatta 70 dolar\u0131n y\u00fcksek band\u0131na do\u011fru itebilir. Bu nedenle, ani ve olumlu bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 cari seviyenin alt\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmeyi de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin kesin bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u00f6kmesi, risk priminin sert y\u00fckselmesiyle ham petrol\u00fc kolayl\u0131kla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Son veriler, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki tankerler i\u00e7in navlun\/ta\u015f\u0131ma sigortas\u0131 primlerinin son bir ayda iki kattan fazla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da somut risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, baz\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mak, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r bi\u00e7imde t\u0131rmanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 gerekli bir korunma (hedge) sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak, en iyi stratejinin y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak yerine bizzat volatiliteyi i\u015flemlemek oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Uzun straddle veya strangle gibi stratejilerle, yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketine pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki ila \u00fc\u00e7 haftada piyasadaki tek ger\u00e7ek kesinlik olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz belirsizlikten faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la ate\u015fkes ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in haftaya anla\u015fma bekliyor; sahadaki gerilim s\u00fcrerken WTI 90,65 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. OVX 50+ sinyaliyle strateji: y\u00f6n de\u011fil volatilite.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47776,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47920"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47920\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}