Geli\u015fen piyasa hisseleri 2026\u2019da genel olarak diren\u00e7li seyrederken, HSBC Asset Management \u00c7in\u2019de karasal (onshore) ve deniza\u015f\u0131r\u0131 (offshore) kote hisseler aras\u0131nda bir ayr\u0131\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana, yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019i offshore olan MSCI China Endeksi yerel para cinsinden %7 gerilerken, %100\u2019\u00fc onshore olan China A Endeksi %10 y\u00fckseldi. Bu fark, endekslerin farkl\u0131 sekt\u00f6r bile\u015fimlerini ve her bir segmentin bu y\u0131lki i\u015flem ko\u015fullar\u0131na nas\u0131l tepki verdi\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
HSBC, onshore y\u00fckseli\u015fi sekt\u00f6r da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriyor: A-hisseleri teknoloji, sanayi ve temel maddelere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veriyor ve bu alanlar yapay zek\u00e2 tedarik zincirlerinin \u201chard tech\u201d taraf\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Offshore \u00c7in teknolojisi ise e-ticaret ve internet platformlar\u0131nda daha yo\u011fun; bu alan 2026\u2019da geride kald\u0131. Onshore piyasa ayr\u0131ca d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara daha az duyarl\u0131 kalarak k\u00fcresel r\u00fczg\u00e2rlara kar\u015f\u0131 bir miktar tampon sa\u011flarken, politika deste\u011fi, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir renminbi ve uzat\u0131lan ABD\u2013\u00c7in ate\u015fkesi \u00c7in varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik alg\u0131y\u0131 etkileyebilecek unsurlar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Onshore ve offshore \u00c7in hisseleri aras\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda da s\u00fcrmesini bekledi\u011fimiz belirgin bir performans fark\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. A-hisse piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yapay zek\u00e2 ile ili\u015fkili hard tech odakl\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131 bu g\u00fcc\u00fcn temel s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisi. May\u0131s 2026 verileri fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor: CSI 300 Endeksi %4 kazan\u0131rken Hang Seng Tech Endeksi yatay kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, FTSE China A50 veya CSI 300 endeks vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon al\u0131narak bir \u201cpairs trade\u201d kurulmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu pozisyon, Hang Seng China Enterprises Endeksi\u2019ni (HSCEI) takip eden vadeli kontratlarda k\u0131sa pozisyonla hedge edilebilir. Strateji, i\u00e7 pazara d\u00f6n\u00fck ve teknoloji odakl\u0131 ekonomi ile k\u00fcresel duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek offshore kote hisseler aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 do\u011frudan hedefliyor.<\/p>\n
Pozitif momentum dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, prim toplamak amac\u0131yla A-hisse ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde out-of-the-money put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC) 28 May\u0131s\u2019ta teknoloji kredilerinde uzmanla\u015fan bankalar i\u00e7in zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Strateji, onshore piyasada ya y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesi ya da bir s\u00fcre konsolidasyon ya\u015fanmas\u0131 durumunda getiriyi destekler.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7lenen renminbi, k\u00fcresel sermayeyi \u00e7ekebilecek bir di\u011fer kritik unsur ve biz de ilave de\u011ferlenmeye pozisyonlan\u0131yoruz. USD\/CNH kuru, Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri a\u015fan ihracat verilerinin deste\u011fiyle, yak\u0131n zamanda kritik 7,15 seviyesinin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc maruziyet sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in yuan \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu temaya daha hedefli maruziyet i\u00e7in onshore yar\u0131 iletken ve end\u00fcstriyel otomasyon ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131n daha uygun bir ara\u00e7 sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde bu sekt\u00f6rlerde sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %15 artt\u0131; bu da temel dinamiklerin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ediyor. Bu tablo, 2019-2020 d\u00f6neminde i\u00e7 pazara d\u00f6n\u00fck teknoloji politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ChiNext endeksinde offshore benzerlerine kar\u015f\u0131 benzer ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00fcst\u00fcn performansa yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in hisselerinde 2026\u2019da kritik ayr\u0131\u015fma: Onshore A-hisseleri %10 y\u00fckselirken offshore a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 MSCI China %7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. HSBC, hard-tech\/AI etkisine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor; pairs trade ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47713,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47919"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47919\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47713"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}