Avustralya Dolar\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Washington ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri durdurmas\u0131n\u0131n ve \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bozulan risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebi y\u00fckseltmesiyle pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,30 geriledi. AUD\/USD paritesi iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck dip seviye olan 0,7134\u2019e do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015ferken, y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirvelere yak\u0131n 0,7277 seviyesinden geri \u00e7ekilerek son olarak 0,7161 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla petrol g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; WTI %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselirken varil fiyat\u0131 92,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hareket ABD tahvilleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken dolar endeksini destekledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,24 art\u0131\u015fla 99,18\u2019e y\u00fckselerek parite \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri de dolar\u0131 destekledi: ISM \u0130malat PMI may\u0131sta 52,7\u2019den 54,0\u2019a y\u00fckselirken, \u00f6denen fiyatlar alt endeksi 84,6\u2019dan 82,1\u2019e geriledi. Avustralya\u2019da ise para piyasalar\u0131, 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisi \u00f6ncesinde RBA\u2019n\u0131n haziranda faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima\u00ee olarak %5\u2019e indirdi; GSYH\u2019nin \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,5 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 0,7155 ve 0,7142 \u00e7evresinde destek izlenirken, 0,7110 civar\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc SMA b\u00f6lgesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 0,7810 ve 0,8231 olarak projekte edilirken RSI (14) 50 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik alevlenmelerin g\u00fcvenli limanlara y\u00f6neli\u015fi tetikledi\u011fini ve bunun ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, piyasan\u0131n klasik bir tepkisi; 2022\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131nda benzer k\u00fcresel gerilimlerin ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu t\u00fcr bir ortam, Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi riske duyarl\u0131 para birimlerini ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yurti\u00e7inde ise Avustralya Dolar\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir destek aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti; t\u00fcrev piyasalar art\u0131k Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %5 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. T\u00fcm dikkatler ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisine \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda. Verinin %0,5\u2019lik beklentinin alt\u0131nda gelmesi, paritede sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flemin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, ABD ekonomisi dayan\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor; son ISM \u0130malat verisi beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131, bir sonraki toplant\u0131da ilave bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcyen bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle GSYH a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in AUD\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu strateji, 0,7110 civar\u0131nda tespit edilen kritik destek k\u00fcmesine do\u011fru bir harekete belirli riskle pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor. Teknik yap\u0131, bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde \u00e7ok daha derin bir d\u00fczeltmenin g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
GSYH verisinin anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketi yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyip y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in ise uzun straddle (al\u0131m straddle) uygulanabilir bir stratejidir. Ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve vadeye sahip hem call hem put opsiyonu al\u0131narak kurulan bu pozisyon, paritenin yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket yapmas\u0131 halinde k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7er. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m tamamen volatilitenin geni\u015flemesine oynar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f sertle\u015fti: \u0130ran-\u0130srail gerilimi ve y\u00fckselen petrol dolar talebini art\u0131rd\u0131, AUD %0,30 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ISM\/Fed beklentisi ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flayan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 AUD\/USD\u2019yi bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47788,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47915","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47915"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47915\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47788"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}