BNP Paribas, \u00c7in\u2019in GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,0\u2019a y\u00fckseldi\u011fini; 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011findeki %4,5 seviyesinden artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 2025 genelinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %5 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi\u011fini belirtti. Banka, 2026 boyunca b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u015fekilde yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; ihracat\u0131n dinamik kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131n i\u00e7 talebin zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fi ve emlak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki stresin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc K-\u015feklinde bir patika tarif ediyor.<\/p>\n
Kredi kurulu\u015fu, k\u00fcresel zeminin daha az destekleyici hale gelmesiyle birlikte ad\u0131mlar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalsa da, maliye ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131n destekleyici tutulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n devreye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201canti-involution\u201d \u00f6nlemleri ile daha y\u00fcksek k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle, deflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n 2026\u2019da hafiflemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn, 2 Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla \u00c7in\u2019e ili\u015fkin ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn karma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in net f\u0131rsatlar sunuyor. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekteki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc %5,0\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme art\u0131k geride kald\u0131 ve beklenen \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 yava\u015flamaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yoruz. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar olas\u0131 bir ivme kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in CSI 300 ETF gibi geni\u015f piyasa endekslerinde put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 makul bir hedge y\u00f6ntemi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda stratejimiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en \u00f6nemli unsur K-\u015feklinde seyir. May\u0131s 2026 ihracat verileri, elektrikli ara\u00e7lara y\u00f6nelik k\u00fcresel talebin etkisiyle \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %7,1\u2019lik bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya i\u015faret etti; bu da belirli imalat sekt\u00f6rlerinde pozitif duru\u015fu destekliyor. Bu nedenle, se\u00e7ili ihracat odakl\u0131 sanayi ve teknoloji hisselerinde call opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelirken, yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle gayrimenkul ETF\u2019lerinde e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Politika deste\u011fi \u201cdestekleyici ama m\u00fctevaz\u0131\u201d olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir kamu te\u015fviki beklemiyoruz. Bu da geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir piyasa rallisinin olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor ve sekt\u00f6r se\u00e7iminin kritik oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 aksiyonunun s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ortam volatiliteyi bask\u0131layabilece\u011finden, ba\u015fl\u0131ca endekslerde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejiler gelir yarat\u0131m\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip olabilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da etkisiyle deflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n hafiflemesi, \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ve yuan i\u00e7in bir miktar destek sunabilir. Bu durum, \u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n agresif faiz indirimlerine gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, yuan\u0131n buradan belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flamayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle USD\/CNH call opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak gibi kur t\u00fcrevleri \u00fczerinden ifade edebiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2026 1\u00c7\u2019de %5,0\u2019a \u00e7\u0131ksa da BNP Paribas K-\u015feklinde patika ve \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 yava\u015flama bekliyor. \u0130hracat g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, i\u00e7 talep\/emlak zay\u0131f: endekslerde hedge, se\u00e7ici call\/put f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47908,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47909"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47909\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}