Kanada Dolar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilimin dolar lehine g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetti. USD\/CAD paritesi 1,3834 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,27 y\u00fckseldi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yar\u0131 resm\u00ee Tasnim Haber Ajans\u0131, Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019da Hizbullah\u2019a y\u00f6nelik asker\u00ee operasyonlar\u0131 nedeniyle Washington ile m\u00fczakereleri ask\u0131ya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 tamamen kapatma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir taahh\u00fctte bulunuldu\u011funu bildirdi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar geri verdi ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,39 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 99,16 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; buna ra\u011fmen g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,25 art\u0131da kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u201cLoonie\u201d \u00fczerinde bask\u0131, ge\u00e7en haftaki zay\u0131f Kanada GSYH verisinin ard\u0131ndan da s\u00fcrd\u00fc; Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) K\u0131demli Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Carolyn Rogers, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH\u2019nin iki \u00e7eyrek \u00fcst \u00fcste daralmas\u0131n\u0131n resesyon tan\u0131mlar\u0131ndan birine uydu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. ABD\u2019de enflasyon, Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ederken, bu durum \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d beklentilerini destekliyor. Veriler taraf\u0131nda, ISM \u0130malat PMI may\u0131sta 52,7\u2019den 54\u2019e y\u00fckselerek May\u0131s 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Kanada\u2019n\u0131n S&P Global \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131 ise 53,3\u2019ten 52,9\u2019a geriledi. Piyasalar \u015fimdi cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD ve Kanada istihdam verilerini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yenilenen gerilimler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. USD\/CAD 1,3800 seviyesinin \u00fczerine itilirken, jeopolitik risklerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 halinde bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi muhtemel. Kritik bir bo\u011faz niteli\u011findeki H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmeler yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019inin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik tehditler, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda belirgin s\u0131\u00e7ramalara ve piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7ar. Daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 zaman zaman Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyebilse de, mevcut g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f dinami\u011fi belirgin bi\u00e7imde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu tablo, CAD i\u00e7in tipik \u201cpetro-para\u201d korelasyonunun etkisini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) aras\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen bir ayr\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Son Kanada verileri teknik resesyona i\u015faret ederken ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,5\u2019e gev\u015femi\u015fken, BoC\u2019nin agresif davranmas\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 neden var. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek PCE %3\u2019\u00fcn inatla \u00fczerinde seyrediyor ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ISM imalat verisi Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d duru\u015funu peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik veriler USD\/CAD i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc ayr\u0131ca destekliyor. Son ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu 210 bin ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederken, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n son i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc anketi yaln\u0131zca 12 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi ve bu art\u0131\u015f n\u00fcfus b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ancak yeti\u015fti. Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak istihdam verileri kritik olacak; ABD g\u00fcc\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 Kanada\u2019daki durgun seyrin devam etti\u011fini teyit etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu do\u011frultuda, olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 harekete kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz. \u00d6zellikle 1,3950 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip, temmuz vadeli kontratlara bak\u0131yoruz; bu, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlanma i\u00e7in maliyet etkin bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor. Bu strateji, mevcut momentumdan faydalan\u0131rken riski tan\u0131mlamaya imk\u00e2n veriyor.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik ayn\u0131 zamanda ima edilen volatiliteyi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, f\u0131rsatlar da yarat\u0131yor. Durumun \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez \u015fekilde t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z sert fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanan stratejilerde de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u015eimdilik en net patika, CAD\u2019in USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ilave zay\u0131flamas\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ticari d\u00f6viz riskine sahip olanlar i\u00e7in\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin Kanada dolar\u0131 gelir elde edip ABD dolar\u0131 cinsinden maliyet \u00f6deyen i\u015fletmeler\u2014bu d\u00f6nem hedge a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik. M\u00fc\u015fterilere, ileri vadeli \u00f6deme y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri i\u00e7in forward s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleriyle kurun sabitlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Opsiyon collar\u2019lar\u0131 kullanmak da, CAD\u2019in beklenmedik \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi durumunda belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fayda potansiyelini korurken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi g\u00fcvenli liman talebini dolara \u00e7evirdi: USD\/CAD 1,3834\u2019te %0,27 y\u00fckseldi. Zay\u0131f Kanada GSYH\u2019si CAD\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor; Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015fu g\u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47903","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47903"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47903\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47903"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47903"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47903"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}