Donald Trump pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u0130ran\u2019la m\u00fczakerelerin ak\u0131beti konusunda kayg\u0131 duymad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; CNBC\u2019ye verdi\u011fi r\u00f6portajda, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bitip bitmemesinin umrunda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, Truth Social\u2019da ise g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin h\u0131zl\u0131 bir tempoyla s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yazd\u0131. Trump ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131 halinde bile petrol fiyatlar\u0131 konusunda endi\u015feli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti ve Ba\u015fbakan Benyamin Netanyahu ile \u201c\u00e7ok verimli\u201d olarak niteledi\u011fi bir telefon g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesine at\u0131fta bulundu.<\/p>\n
Trump, Beyrut\u2019a ABD askeri g\u00f6nderilmeyece\u011fini ve yolda olan kuvvetlerin zaten geri \u00e7evrildi\u011fini de s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca, \u201c\u00e7ok \u00fcst d\u00fczey\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 temsilciler arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla Hizbullah ile \u00e7ok iyi bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve taraflar\u0131n t\u00fcm ate\u015fin kesilmesi konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. WTI (West Texas Intermediate), Brent ve Dubai ile birlikte ba\u015fl\u0131ca ham petrol g\u00f6stergelerinden biri olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr; ABD\u2019de \u00fcretilir ve Cushing terminali \u00fczerinden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
WTI fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 arz ve talep belirler; k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve OPEC kararlar\u0131 piyasay\u0131 etkilerken, ham petrol dolar cinsinden i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in ABD Dolar\u0131 da fiyatlama \u00fczerinde etkili olur. Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (API) ve Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) stok verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenir: API raporlar\u0131 her sal\u0131, EIA ise ertesi g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131r ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 zaman\u0131n %75\u2019inde birbirinden %1 sapma aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir. OPEC, y\u0131lda iki kez yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131larda \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen 12 petrol \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkeden olu\u015furken, OPEC+ buna OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 10 \u00fcyeyi daha ekler.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran konusunda kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da petrol piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in ciddi belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. L\u00fcbnan\u2019da gerilimin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclebilece\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylemler bulunsa da, \u0130ran\u2019la m\u00fczakerelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olma ihtimali H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndemin merkezine ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sert bir art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 bir kesinti ciddi bir tehdit; EIA\u2019ya g\u00f6re ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu dar bo\u011fazdan g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil ge\u00e7ti. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) %15 y\u00fckselerek 35\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve aylar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u015fimdiden izledik. Bu, piyasan\u0131n kayda de\u011fer bir risk primini aktif bi\u00e7imde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eli\u015fkili a\u00e7\u0131klamalar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanan opsiyon stratejilerinde bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckselirken, reel d\u00fcnyada ya\u015fanabilecek bir arz kesintisinin yarataca\u011f\u0131 potansiyeli h\u00e2l\u00e2 oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor olabilir; bu nedenle WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde uzun straddle stratejilerine bak\u0131yoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, sonucun y\u00fckseli\u015f mi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f m\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131na dair y\u00f6nsel bahis almadan, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir harekete pozisyonlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Bu jeopolitik gerilim, temel piyasa dinamiklerinin zaten s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme denk geliyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki EIA raporu, 4,2 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz ham petrol stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne i\u015faret ederek yaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonuna girilirken talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa dair sinyal verdi. OPEC+\u2019\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek boyunca \u00fcretim kesintilerini korumas\u0131 nedeniyle, herhangi bir \u015foku absorbe edecek arz tamponu ola\u011fan\u0131n da alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Ger\u00e7ek bir arz kesintisine fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verebilece\u011fini g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in 2019\u2019daki Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na bakmak yeterli. O d\u00f6nemde Brent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri tek seansta yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 s\u0131\u00e7rayarak onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcn i\u00e7i art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetmi\u015fti. Mevcut s\u00f6ylem, benzer hatta daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat \u015fokunun m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funa ve buna kar\u015f\u0131 hedge yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde g\u00f6zler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de: Trump\u2019tan \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine \u00e7eli\u015fkili mesajlar, OVX 35 \u00fcst\u00fcyle risk primi y\u00fckseliyor. Stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve OPEC+ kesintileri arz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; opsiyonlarda uzun straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47902"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47902\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}