ABD hisseleri, jeopolitik gerilimlerin petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n endekslerin \u00e7o\u011funu yatay b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti. Dow, ge\u00e7en haftaki 51.100 \u00fczerindeki zirvelerin ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 (yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 puan) gerileyerek 50.800\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyeye indi; S&P 500 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken Nasdaq Composite ise yataya yak\u0131n kald\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 devlet ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Tasnim, Tahran\u2019\u0131n arac\u0131lar \u00fczerinden ABD\u2019ye mesaj iletmeyi durdurdu\u011funu ve L\u00fcbnan ile Gazze\u2019de \u0130srail\u2019in operasyonlar\u0131na ba\u011flanan talepler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Bab\u00fc\u2019l-Mendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 aktive ederken H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 tamamen kapatmay\u0131 hedefledi\u011fini bildirdi. Bu ad\u0131m, gece boyunca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Kuveyt\u2019teki ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerine balistik f\u00fcze ate\u015fi a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Sava\u015f \u00f6ncesinde k\u00fcresel petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte biri H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7iyordu; tehdit sonras\u0131 ham petrol %5\u2019e yak\u0131n y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Teknoloji hisselerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7, genel temkinli havay\u0131 k\u0131smen dengeledi. Nvidia, Taipei\u2019deki Computex\u2019te yeni bir yapay zek\u00e2 diz\u00fcst\u00fc bilgisayar \u00e7ipi duyurusunun ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %4-%5 y\u00fckselirken; Microsoft %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131 yazd\u0131, IBM ve Micron ise \uac01\uac01 %5\u2019ten fazla prim yapt\u0131. Berkshire Hathaway, Taylor Morrison\u2019\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 6,8 milyar dolar nakitle, Cuma kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %24 primle sat\u0131n almak \u00fczere anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131; bu haberle konut \u015firketinin hisseleri %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Hisse senetleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken Hazine tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseldi; bu tablo alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken Bitcoin, borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131ndan \u00fcst \u00fcste 10. g\u00fcn \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesiyle 70 bin dolara do\u011fru geriledi. Veri taraf\u0131nda, May\u0131s ISM \u0130malat PMI 14:00 GMT\u2019de 54 ile 53 beklentisinin \u00fczerinde geldi; \u00f6denen fiyatlar endeksi 82,1\u2019e geriledi. Dikkatler ard\u0131ndan JOLTS, ADP, ISM Hizmetler, i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve Cuma 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdama (NFP) \u00e7evriliyor; beklenti 85 bin, \u00f6nceki 115 bin.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik tehditleri umursamaz g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesiyle volatilite son derece ucuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. VIX Endeksi\u2019nin 13,5 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu seviye tarihsel olarak iki b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol bo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 riskini yans\u0131tm\u0131yor. Rehavet i\u00e7indeki bu piyasada gecikmi\u015f bir \u015foka d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli \u015fekilde pozisyon almak i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Ham petroldeki %5\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7rama, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki durum k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015firse yaln\u0131zca ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 olabilir. Tarihsel olarak bu b\u00f6lgedeki arz kesintileri, 1980\u2019lerde \u0130ran-Irak sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda y\u0131llarca fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutan kal\u0131c\u0131 rallide oldu\u011fu gibi, \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcrebilecek daha y\u00fcksek bir d\u00f6nemden faydalanmak i\u00e7in XLE enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019i \u00fczerindeki al\u0131m (call) pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknoloji ile zay\u0131f Dow aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma net bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine oynayarak Nasdaq 100 ETF\u2019i (QQQ) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m spread\u2019i (call spread) al\u0131rken e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak Dow Jones ETF\u2019i (DIA) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m spread\u2019i (put spread) al\u0131yoruz. Bu yap\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na bahis yaparken daha geleneksel, enerjiye duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 hedge imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131, hisse senetlerine k\u0131yasla enflasyon riskine dair daha d\u00fcr\u00fcst bir hik\u00e2ye anlat\u0131yor. CME FedWatch vadeli i\u015flemleri Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine fiyatlarken, uzun vadeli tahviller \u00fczerinde daha fazla bask\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu haftan\u0131n kritik istihdam verileri \u00f6ncesinde iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF\u2019i (TLT) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Berkshire Hathaway\u2019in bir konut \u00fcreticisini sat\u0131n almas\u0131, faize duyarl\u0131 bir sekt\u00f6re y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nemli bir g\u00fcven oyu niteli\u011finde. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funa ra\u011fmen bu, b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular\u0131n ABD konut piyasas\u0131nda temel de\u011fer ve talep g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da k\u0131sa vadeli faiz korkular\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ters (contrarian) bir hamle olarak konut \u00fcreticileri ETF\u2019i (XHB) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call) bakmam\u0131za yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u015foku kap\u0131da m\u0131? ABD hisseleri petrol\u00fcn %5 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yatay; Dow geriledi, teknoloji (Nvidia, Microsoft) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Dolar ve getiriler y\u00fckseldi, kripto d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Strateji: VIX call, XLE\/QQQ long, DIA\/TLT put, XHB call.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47898","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47898","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47898"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47898\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47898"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47898"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47898"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}