Alt\u0131n haftaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131. XAU\/USD, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da gerilim s\u00fcrerken ve ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken ABD seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 4.450 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.470 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Tasnim Haber Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n mesaj trafi\u011finin ask\u0131ya al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan gergin seyrini korudu. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), \u0130ran\u2019a ait radar ve \u0130HA mevzilerine \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131\u201d d\u00fczenledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klarken, \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00fcsse y\u00f6nelik misilleme yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131n, sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana %15\u2019ten fazla gerilemi\u015f durumda ve ocak sonundaki 5.600 dolar civar\u0131ndaki zirvesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 alt\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. WTI, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek enflasyon endi\u015felerini besledi ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. CME FedWatch Tool, piyasalar\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. ABD verileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi: S&P Global ABD \u0130malat PMI may\u0131sta 54,5\u2019ten 55,1\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, ISM \u0130malat PMI 54,0 ile May\u0131s 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; odak \u015fimdi cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verisine \u00e7evrildi. Teknik tarafta diren\u00e7 4.600 dolarda ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.801\u20134.802 dolar band\u0131nda izlenirken, destek 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi 4.410\u20134.411 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve 4.100 dolar taban\u0131nda bulunuyor; RSI 43, ADX ise 24 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.500 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li yolun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ana bask\u0131 unsurlar\u0131 jeopolitikten ziyade g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyona odaklanmas\u0131. Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) son d\u00f6nemde 106 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, alt\u0131n yerine piyasan\u0131n tercih etti\u011fi g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcren ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in belirgin bir al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 yaratmakta yetersiz kal\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ikincil etkiler daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. WTI\u2019\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretmesiyle ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, do\u011frudan enflasyon endi\u015felerini k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Bu da piyasadaki, Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik inanc\u0131 peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm do\u011frultusunda, olas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in vadesi haziran sonu ve temmuz olan sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. CBOE Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (GVZ) 14 seviyelerinde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir d\u00fczeyde kalmas\u0131, opsiyon primlerinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 pahal\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Stratejimiz, alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.600 dolar direncini yeniden a\u015famamas\u0131yla tetikleniyor. Bu put pozisyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk ana hedef, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama deste\u011finin bulundu\u011fu 4.410 dolar civar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu teknik zeminin net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 4.100 dolardaki daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc deste\u011fe do\u011fru hareketi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu, izledi\u011fimiz en kritik g\u00fcndem maddesi. Ge\u00e7en ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan 272 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, faiz indirimi beklentilerini zaten t\u00f6rp\u00fclemi\u015fti. Bir di\u011fer g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisi, yak\u0131n vadede Fed\u2019in politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi (pivot) ihtimaline dair kalan beklentiyi neredeyse tamamen ortadan kald\u0131rabilir ve alt\u0131n i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryomuza \u00f6nemli destek sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: Fed\u2019in agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc, devam eden jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n lehine olu\u015fabilecek iyimserli\u011fi s\u00fcrekli bast\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bir kez daha, de\u011ferli metal i\u00e7in belirleyici fakt\u00f6r para politikas\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Getiri sa\u011flamayan bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetinin, \u015fu anda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ana temas\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f: Alt\u0131n 4.500 dolar alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon korkusu Fed\u2019i \u015fahin tutuyor. 4.600 diren\u00e7, 4.410\/4.100 destek; NFP kritik, put stratejisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47897","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47897"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47897\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47897"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47897"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47897"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}