EUR\/USD, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bar\u0131\u015f d\u00fczenlemesine dair umutlar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilimin etkisiyle pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Parite 1,1626 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,30 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Tasnim ajans\u0131, \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019da Hizbullah\u2019a y\u00f6nelik devam eden askeri operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek Tahran\u2019\u0131n Washington ile mesaj trafi\u011fini durdurdu\u011funu bildirdi. Ayr\u0131 olarak \u0130ran, ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (CENTCOM) \u0130ran\u2019a ait radar ve \u0130HA tesislerine \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa ama\u00e7l\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u201d d\u00fczenledi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan, ABD\u2019yi ate\u015fkesi ihlal etmekle su\u00e7lad\u0131. Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 ise g\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya misilleme olarak ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir hava \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc vurdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 toparland\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi 98,75\u2019ten y\u00fckselerek 99,20 civar\u0131na geldi; WTI ise %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 92,50 dolara t\u0131rmand\u0131. Faiz beklentileri de dolar\u0131 destekledi: CME FedWatch Tool, aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %42 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Avrupa\u2019da piyasalar ECB\u2019nin bu ay i\u00e7inde faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatlarken, y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine y\u00f6nelik riskleri art\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD verilerinde S&P Global imalat PMI may\u0131sta 55,1 ile 54,5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, ISM endeksi 54,0 ile May\u0131s 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunu, hafta ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde ise ABD ADP ve tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verilerini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Yenilenen jeopolitik gerilimler, klasik bir g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetikliyor ve bu da ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015flemlerimizde \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kacak ana tema dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc olacak. Bu ortam\u0131n, daha riskli para birimlerini elde tutmay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo Euro\u2019yu \u00f6zellikle k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisi enerji ithalat\u0131na y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ve sert y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan tehdit ediliyor. Bu nedenle, EUR\/USD kurundaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften fayda sa\u011flayacak stratejilere odaklan\u0131yoruz. EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete maruz kalman\u0131n net bir yolunu sunarken, azami riski de s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131mlamay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilitenin s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: EUR\/USD 1 ayl\u0131k volatilite yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7en hafta %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde artarak %8,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu durum, enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda sert hareketlere yol a\u00e7an \u00f6nceki jeopolitik \u015foklar s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen piyasa tepkisini and\u0131r\u0131yor. Beklenen fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndaki bu art\u0131\u015f, koruyucu opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92,50 dolarla 9 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonist etkileriyle m\u00fccadele etmek i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa zorlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu haftaki tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirse\u2014ekonomistler \u015fu an 195 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor\u2014faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile artan bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, euroya ili\u015fkin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentimizi destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da gerilim yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131yor: EUR\/USD %0,30 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,1626\u2019ya gerilerken dolar ve petrol y\u00fckseldi. Fed\u2019in \u015fahinle\u015fme ihtimali ve artan enerji maliyetleri euroyu bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47892","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47892"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47892\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47892"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47892"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47892"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}