TD Securities, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 tamamen yeniden a\u00e7acak kapsaml\u0131 bir anla\u015fma sa\u011flansa dahi, petrol dengesinin yaz boyunca s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bankan\u0131n senaryo analizine g\u00f6re Haziran-Kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde derin a\u00e7\u0131klar olu\u015facak; a\u00e7\u0131k Temmuz\u2019da zirve yapt\u0131ktan sonra, Orta Do\u011fu transit ko\u015fullar\u0131 iyile\u015fse bile operasyonel k\u0131s\u0131tlar ve yeniden devreye alma gecikmeleri nedeniyle arz\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanamamas\u0131yla y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru kademeli olarak hafifleyecek.<\/p>\n
Bu en iyi senaryo kapsam\u0131nda TD, Haziran-Kas\u0131m aras\u0131nda 1 milyar varillik \u00fcretim kayb\u0131 ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; stoklar\u0131n ise buna ra\u011fmen 800 milyon varil azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Haziran y\u00fckleri Temmuz ve A\u011fustos ba\u015f\u0131nda ula\u015f\u0131rken Asya rafinerilerinin i\u015fleme oranlar\u0131 1,5\u20132 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn artabilir; ancak SPR ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki azalma ve k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 \u00fcretim nedeniyle Temmuz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 9,7 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn seviyesinde kal\u0131r. Eyl\u00fcl-Kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde Orta Do\u011fu arz\u0131ndaki toparlanman\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 daraltmas\u0131 beklenirken, \u00fcretimin Kas\u0131m itibar\u0131yla sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; ihracat\u0131n Bo\u011faz \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 12 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn\u2019e geri d\u00f6nece\u011fi, buna ek olarak 3\u20133,5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn\u2019\u00fcn Yanbu ve F\u00fcceyre (Fujairah) baypas hatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden akmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi varsay\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019e y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya dair man\u015fetlerden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak, petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Mevcut veriler, k\u00fcresel ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini ve arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 tamponun olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Temel denge hesab\u0131, en iyimser senaryolarda dahi bu yaz derin a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n zirvesinin Temmuz\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi bekleniyor; bu da y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar i\u00e7in net bir f\u0131rsat alan\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Asya rafinerilerinin i\u015fleme miktar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 s\u00fcrerken arz\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla piyasa a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 9 milyon varilin \u00fczerine geni\u015fleyebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu tablo, yak\u0131n vadede beklenen fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vade (front-month) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130yimser haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olmak gerekiyor; olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fman\u0131n fiziki arza yans\u0131mas\u0131, \u00f6nemli lojistik ve politik e\u015fikleri a\u015fmay\u0131 gerektiriyor. 2008\u2019de fiyatlar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 150 dolara kadar s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 gibi jeopolitik gerilim \u00f6rnekleri, temeller s\u0131k\u0131yken piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortam, ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferli bir ara\u00e7 haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek sonuna do\u011fru Orta Do\u011fu \u00fcretiminin kademeli geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn iyile\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Bu da a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 yaz aylar\u0131 ile d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe uzanan daha dengeli bir piyasa aras\u0131nda potansiyel bir ayr\u0131\u015fma yaratabilir. Bu nedenle, Temmuz veya A\u011fustos vadelerinde uzun pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Kas\u0131m ya da Aral\u0131k teslimatl\u0131 kontratlarda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar gibi, vade yap\u0131s\u0131ndaki bu farkl\u0131la\u015fmadan yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen i\u015flemleri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Man\u015fetlere aldanmay\u0131n: TD Securities\u2019e g\u00f6re H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131lsa bile yaz boyunca petrol piyasas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131. Temmuz\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131k ~9,7 mb\/g\u00fcnle zirve, Haziran-Kas\u0131m 1 milyar varil kay\u0131p, stoklar 800 milyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47749,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47887","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47887"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47887\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47887"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47887"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47887"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}