{"id":47886,"date":"2026-06-01T21:32:03","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T21:32:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bnp-paribas-euronun-121e-yukselmesiyle-abd-buyumesinin-potansiyelin-uzerinde-seyrettigini-enflasyonun-ise-yapiskan-kaldigini-ongoruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-01T21:32:03","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T21:32:03","slug":"bnp-paribas-euronun-121e-yukselmesiyle-abd-buyumesinin-potansiyelin-uzerinde-seyrettigini-enflasyonun-ise-yapiskan-kaldigini-ongoruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bnp-paribas-euronun-121e-yukselmesiyle-abd-buyumesinin-potansiyelin-uzerinde-seyrettigini-enflasyonun-ise-yapiskan-kaldigini-ongoruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"BNP Paribas, euronun 1,21\u2019e y\u00fckselmesiyle ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin potansiyelin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini, enflasyonun ise yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

BNP Paribas, ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2026\u2019da potansiyelin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini, GSYH\u2019nin 2025\u2019teki %2,1\u2019e k\u0131yasla %2,4 artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Banka, enflasyonun 2026\u2019da %3,8 ile hedefin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 ve 2028\u2019e kadar kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bask\u0131y\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve tarifelere ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Kurum ayr\u0131ca faaliyet taraf\u0131nda, yapay zek\u00e2ya ba\u011fl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla ili\u015fkili ve daha varl\u0131kl\u0131 hanelerde yo\u011funla\u015fan t\u00fcketimle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bir ayr\u0131\u015fma desenine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Politika taraf\u0131nda BNP Paribas, FOMC\u2019nin iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc korumas\u0131yla Fed fonlama oran\u0131 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %3,5\u2013%3,75\u2019te kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda ise euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kademeli bir dolar de\u011fer kayb\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; EUR\/USD\u2019nin 2026 4. \u00e7eyrekte 1,21\u2019e, ard\u0131ndan 2027 4. \u00e7eyrekte 1,25\u2019e y\u00fckselmesini bekliyor. Baz senaryo, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da kademeli bir normalle\u015fme varsayarken fiyat gerilimlerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc kabul ediyor.<\/p>\n

Kademeli Dolar De\u011fer Kayb\u0131 ve Kur G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

ABD ekonomisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme sergilerken, euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolar\u0131n kademeli bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 izleyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Mevcut EUR\/USD kuru 1,18 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar 1,21\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, ekonomik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ve dolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131 varl\u0131klara do\u011fru \u00e7e\u015fitlenmeye dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda hedef faizini %3,5 ile %3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ait son T\u00dcFE verisi enflasyonun %3,7\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine gitmesi i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede acil bir gerek\u00e7e olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 fikrini destekliyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bu istikrarl\u0131 duru\u015fu, kur hareketlerinin yava\u015f ve d\u00fczenli olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Opsiyon Stratejisi ve Volatilite Ortam\u0131<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, daha uzun vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; \u00f6zellikle Eyl\u00fcl veya Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi yakalamak i\u00e7in 1,20 civar\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu strateji, hareketin hemen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini gerektirmeden y\u00f6nsel f\u0131rsattan faydalanmaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ok kademeli bir de\u011ferlenme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite ortam\u0131nda da f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Cboe EuroCurrency Volatility Index 5,5 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve bu seviye \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyelere i\u015faret ediyor; bu da opsiyon satmay\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Beklenen istikrardan prim toplamak amac\u0131yla, Temmuz 2026 vadeli \u00abparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u00bb (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, kendi enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken ge\u00e7en ay politika faizini %3,25\u2019te sabit tutan istikrarl\u0131 Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan da destekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,21\u2019e do\u011fru yeniden hareket etmesi s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fil; bu, sadece 2021 ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f anlam\u0131na gelir. Buradaki temel unsur, beklenen hareketin yava\u015f ve kademeli niteli\u011fidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BNP Paribas\u2019tan dikkat \u00e7eken kur senaryosu: ABD 2026\u2019da %2,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken enflasyon %3,8\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131. Fed %3,5\u2013%3,75\u2019te bekle-g\u00f6r. Dolar kademeli zay\u0131flar; EUR\/USD 2026\u2019da 1,21, 2027\u2019de 1,25.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47886","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47886"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47886\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47886"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47886"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47886"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}