USD\/CHF, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fcretim verileri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, yak\u0131n vadede ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentilerinin azalmas\u0131n\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyip \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. Parite 0,7878 civar\u0131nda, yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,88 art\u0131da i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Tasnim Haber Ajans\u0131, \u0130srail\u2019in G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan\u2019da Hizbullah\u2019a y\u00f6nelik askeri operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmesi ve ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hafta sonu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 yeni sald\u0131r\u0131larda bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Tahran\u2019\u0131n Washington ile mesaj trafi\u011fini durdurdu\u011funu bildirdi. Dolar, ge\u00e7en hafta 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00f6n anla\u015fma niteli\u011finde bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 (MOU) haberlerinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sonras\u0131nda toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 98,75 civar\u0131ndaki iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden tepki vererek 99,33 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Petrol g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi (WTI) %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi; bu durum enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rarak ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerini, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rmak zorunda kalabilece\u011fi beklentisiyle yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB), enflasyonun %0\u2013%2 hedef band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla politika faizini sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u0130svi\u00e7re T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin may\u0131sta %0,8\u2019e (nisanda %0,6) y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ABD\u2019de fabrika anketleri iyile\u015firken, S&P Global imalat PMI 54,5\u2019ten 55,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ISM endeksi ise 54\u2019e y\u00fckselerek May\u0131s 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de GSYH 1\u00c7\u2019de \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek %0,5 beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131 (\u00f6nceki %0,2); SVME PMI da 54,5\u2019ten 57,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Yenilenen jeopolitik gerilimler ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131ca kazanan olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131ndaki ileti\u015fimin kopmas\u0131 ve WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn son d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, dolar lehine bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) e\u011filimini peki\u015ftiriyor. Bu ortam, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 gibi para birimleri i\u00e7in belirgin bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc, Fed ile SNB aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n belirginle\u015fmesiyle de destekleniyor. May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin son ABD enflasyon verileri y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde %3,5 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek Fed\u2019i \u015fahin patikada tutarken, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyon %1,4 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrini koruyor; bu da SNB\u2019nin bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda politika faizini %1,50\u2019ye indirmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu politika fark\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019na k\u0131yasla ABD Dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Makro veriler, iki ekonominin farkl\u0131 h\u0131zlarda seyretti\u011fi anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. ABD\u2019nin son ISM \u0130malat PMI verisi 50,5 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ortaya koyarak geni\u015flemenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne ve ekonominin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin son Procure.ch \u0130malat PMI verisi 46,4 ile daralma b\u00f6lgesinde kalarak, ihracat odakl\u0131 ekonominin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, USD\/CHF\u2019te uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131l\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski y\u00f6netmek amac\u0131yla USD\/CHF \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Mevcut ortam, paritenin 0,9250 civar\u0131ndaki mevcut seviyesinden y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; \u00f6zellikle dolar\u0131 destekleyen temel dinamiklerde belirgin bir gev\u015feme i\u015fareti g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fla\u015f: Jeopolitik tansiyon ve petrol rallisi Dolar\u0131 parlat\u0131yor! USD\/CHF, ABD-\u0130ran ileti\u015fiminin kopmas\u0131yla risk-off ve Fed-SNB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 sayesinde y\u00fckseldi; DXY toparland\u0131, parite g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47885","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47885"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47885\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47885"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47885"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47885"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}