Commerzbank, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapal\u0131 tutarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek seviyelerde desteklemesi ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini daha da bozmas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda Japon yeninin (JPY) bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Banka, y\u00fckselen fosil yak\u0131t maliyetlerinin i\u00e7 ekonomi \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir y\u00fck olu\u015fturdu\u011funu, bu durumun da orta vadede yap\u0131c\u0131 bir duru\u015f korunmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen JPY i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadeli olumsuzluklar\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, petrol kaynakl\u0131 piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (BoJ) ili\u015fkin beklentileri yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e Fed ve ECB beklentilerinin artmas\u0131n\u0131n, Japonya aleyhine ABD ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi ile faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti\u011fini ifade ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sona erene ve destekleyici tedbirlere ihtiya\u00e7 kalmayana kadar, yeni bor\u00e7lanmadaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131na k\u0131yasla JPY \u00fczerinde daha fazla bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu ekliyor. Bo\u011faz yeniden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131p petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda oda\u011f\u0131n tekrar faiz farklar\u0131na kaymas\u0131 beklenirken, ayarlaman\u0131n yava\u015f, do\u011frusal olmayan bir patikada ilerleyece\u011fi ve JPY \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda g\u00fc\u00e7lense bile dalgalanmalarla birlikte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken ve USD\/JPY kuru 165 seviyesinin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015fken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yen \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, kritik H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapal\u0131 tutan ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fi\u015firen devam eden \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Mevcut tablo, k\u0131sa vadede daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yen i\u00e7in arg\u00fcman \u00fcretmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s 2026\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanan son d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri, yeniden belirgin bir a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 teyit ederek ekonominin y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerine ne kadar duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ortaya koydu. Petrol ve gazda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir net ithalat\u00e7\u0131 olan Japonya\u2019da, yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi do\u011frudan bozuluyor. Bu temel ekonomik bask\u0131n\u0131n, yenin ba\u015fl\u0131ca i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131nda etkisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu enflasyonist ortamda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l konumlanaca\u011f\u0131na dair alg\u0131da belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasalar, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Fed ve ECB\u2019yi g\u00f6rece \u015fahin tutabilece\u011fini fiyatlarken; politika faizleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla %5,5 ve %4,75 seviyelerindeyken, BoJ\u2019un s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131, yen ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 son derece cazip olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor ve yene kar\u015f\u0131 carry trade i\u015flemlerini beslemeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, yen sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131n strateji olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Temmuz veya A\u011fustos vadeli USD\/JPY i\u00e7in \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, daha fazla de\u011fer kayb\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanman\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli bir yolu olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca Euro B\u00f6lgesi ile geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlan\u0131rken prim maliyetlerini y\u00f6netmek ad\u0131na EUR\/JPY call spread\u2019lerinde de de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcne i\u015faret edebilecek sinyallere kar\u015f\u0131 dikkatli olmak gerekiyor; zira bu t\u00fcr bir geli\u015fme yen taraf\u0131nda sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanmay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Benzer bir dinamik 2024\u2019te G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi geriliminin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f; yen iki haftadan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede dolara kar\u015f\u0131 %4 de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, daha uzun vadeli ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli yen call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kademeli bi\u00e7imde eklenmesi, olas\u0131 ani jeopolitik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli bir hedge i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fc kapal\u0131 tutup petrol\u00fc 115 dolarda desteklerken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor; Fed\/ECB \u015fahin, BoJ pasif. Sonu\u00e7: USD\/JPY 165+; yen aylarca bask\u0131da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47883,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47884","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47884","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47884"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47884\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47883"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47884"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47884"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47884"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}