Nordea, Isabel Schnabel, Philip Lane, Olli Rehn ve Yannis Stournaras dahil ECB yetkililerinin Haziran\u2019da politika faizi art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ve potansiyel olarak ilave ad\u0131mlara y\u00f6nelik sinyalleri, \u201cg\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi koruma\u201d vurgusuyla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Banka, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha geni\u015f enflasyona ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na s\u0131\u00e7rayabilece\u011fine dair endi\u015feye i\u015faret ederek, ikinci tur etkiler devreye girerse piyasalar\u0131n daha kapsaml\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc riskini hafife ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu. Ayr\u0131ca, mesajla\u015fmadaki de\u011fi\u015fime ra\u011fmen ge\u00e7en hafta EUR k\u0131sa vadeli faiz cephesinin ralli yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi.<\/p>\n
Schnabel, petrol vadeli e\u011frisinin daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015foka i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirterek enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti; \u015firketlerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131 beklentilerindeki keskin art\u0131\u015fa ve hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n orta vadeli enflasyon beklentilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fe at\u0131f yapt\u0131. Lane de ekonomideki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkiyi kabul ederken, Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda teknik ekibin enflasyon tahminlerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve enerjiden genel fiyatlara s\u0131\u00e7rama riskini yineledi. Rehn ve Stournaras ise faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 bir \u201cg\u00fcvenilirlik\u201d ad\u0131m\u0131 olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi; Nordea, ECB\u2019nin 2022\u2019deki ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon %8\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra geldi\u011fini hat\u0131rlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ECB yetkililerinden, g\u00fcvenilirliklerini korumak amac\u0131yla bu ay faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret eden seslerin giderek artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Kilit isimler, enflasyonun enerjiden daha geni\u015f ekonomiye s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nleyici hareket etme gere\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz piyasalar\u0131 daha agresif bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 fazla kay\u0131ts\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, ge\u00e7en haftaki Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00f6nc\u00fc T\u00dcFE verileriyle de destekleniyor: Enflasyon May\u0131s\u2019ta beklentilerin \u00fczerinde h\u0131zlanarak %3,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, oynak enerji kalemlerini hari\u00e7 tutan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon da %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi; bu da fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, yetkililerin uyard\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcrden \u201cikinci tur etki\u201dnin tam olarak kendisi.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019de enflasyon %8\u2019in \u00fczerine f\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ge\u00e7 kal\u0131narak yap\u0131lan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n haf\u0131zas\u0131, mevcut tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde etkiliyor. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar ayn\u0131 hatay\u0131 tekrarlamamakta kararl\u0131; bu nedenle geleneksel g\u00fcvercinler dahi art\u0131k bir \u201cg\u00fcvenilirlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201dn\u0131 savunuyor. Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadeli faaliyet verilerindeki olas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak, 11 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ad\u0131m\u0131 neredeyse kesin hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, Euro getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa ucunda daha dikle\u015fmeye y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmada de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 3 ayl\u0131k EURIBOR vadeli kontratlar\u0131 gibi enstr\u00fcmanlar, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek sonuna kadar en az iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskini yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. K\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckseli\u015finden ya da faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131ndan faydalanan opsiyon stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n
Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201de ge\u00e7ti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 Euro\u2019yu da desteklemesi beklenir. Bug\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla opsiyon piyasalar\u0131nda EUR\/USD i\u00e7in ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131, uzun Euro pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n cazip risk-getiri profilleriyle kurulabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. ECB\u2019nin bu ay \u015fahin bir mesaj vermesi halinde paritenin yeniden 1,10 seviyesine do\u011fru hareket etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB\u2019de \u201cg\u00fcvenilirlik\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor: Schnabel, Lane, Rehn ve Stournaras Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali verdi. Nordea\u2019ya g\u00f6re piyasalar ikinci tur enflasyon riskini ve daha sert s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 hafife al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47882","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47882","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47882"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47882\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47882"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47882"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47882"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}