Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak toplant\u0131da politika faizini \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste %5,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasalar ise INR\u2019deki ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ve rupiyi desteklemek amac\u0131yla \u015fahin bir tona kayma riskini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
FX taraf\u0131nda USD\/INR, 20 May\u0131s\u2019ta yakla\u015f\u0131k 97,0000 seviyesindeki rekor zirveden Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 95,0000\u2019e geri \u00e7ekildi. Bu hareket; RBI\u2019nin agresif m\u00fcdahaleleri ve Ba\u015fkan Sanjay Malhotra\u2019n\u0131n s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmesi (jawboning) ile birlikte, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn son d\u00f6nemdeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan para birimini istikrara kavu\u015fturmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmas\u0131yla desteklendi.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin bu Cuma yap\u0131lacak toplant\u0131da politika faizini %5,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Rupi \u015fimdiden dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; USD\/INR son d\u00f6nemde 97,00 zirvesinden 95,00\u2019e geriledi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, RBI\u2019nin dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle desteklendi.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, RBI\u2019nin para birimini daha da desteklemek i\u00e7in \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz yapma riski art\u0131yor. Son veriler, May\u0131s ay\u0131 t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun beklentilerin aksine %4,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu da merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu durum, piyasan\u0131n tamamen fiyatlamam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ek bir olas\u0131l\u0131k haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu risk nedeniyle, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/INR sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, RBI\u2019nin ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 halinde paritede ya\u015fanabilecek olas\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde vadesi dolan opsiyonlarda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek; ancak \u015fahin bir hamle muhtemelen \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat reaksiyonu do\u011furacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, son resmi verilerde de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: D\u00f6viz rezervleri ge\u00e7en hafta 2,1 milyar dolar azalarak 641 milyar dolara geriledi. Bu, rupiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in piyasaya aktif bi\u00e7imde m\u00fcdahale ettiklerini teyit ediyor. At\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar, para biriminin yeniden zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde net bir iradeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 dolara gerilemesi de daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir rupiyi destekliyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olarak Hindistan\u2019da daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlar, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu elveri\u015fli arka plan, RBI\u2019ye kur istikrar\u0131na odaklanmak i\u00e7in daha fazla esneklik sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
RBI faizi sabit tutar ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, \u015fahin bir dil kullan\u0131rsa, rupinin istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 veya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini bekleriz. Bu senaryoda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde fiyatlanan oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 satma f\u0131rsat\u0131na y\u00f6nelebilir. Kritik unsur, Ba\u015fkan Malhotra\u2019n\u0131n gelecekteki ad\u0131mlara ili\u015fkin tonunda bir de\u011fi\u015fim olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n dikkatle izlenmesi olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler RBI\u2019da: Faiz %5,25\u2019te sabit kalabilir ama \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz masada. USD\/INR 97\u2019den 95\u2019e indi; m\u00fcdahale ve petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47880","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47880"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47880\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47880"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47880"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47880"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}