Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ISM \u0130malat Yeni Sipari\u015fler Endeksi, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda \u00f6nceki 54,1 seviyesinden 56,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, fabrika sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde talep ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, verinin daralma ile geni\u015flemeyi ay\u0131ran 50 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fcmeci g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc teyit etti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, artan sipari\u015flerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda \u00fcretim ve tedarik zincirlerine ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izleyecek. ABD imalat\u0131ndaki ivmeyi daha kapsaml\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in fiyatlar (prices paid) ve istihdam gibi di\u011fer ISM alt kalemleri de yak\u0131ndan takip edilebilir.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ISM Yeni Sipari\u015fler Endeksi\u2019nin 56,8 ile gelmesi, imalat talebinde belirgin ve h\u0131zlanan bir geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, bir\u00e7ok piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtm\u0131\u015f olabilecek, alttaki ekonomik g\u00fcce dair net bir sinyal niteli\u011finde. Veri, 2024 sonundan bu yana yeni sipari\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda en h\u0131zl\u0131 tempoya i\u015faret ederek sanayi taraf\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir momentum kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bunu, \u00f6zellikle sanayi ve temel materyaller gibi d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rlerde hisse piyasas\u0131nda ek y\u00fckseli\u015fler i\u00e7in pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Veri, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in S&P 500 gibi geni\u015f endekslerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca, bu raporun yak\u0131n vadeli ekonomik yava\u015flama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 nedeniyle prim toplamak amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir strateji olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc okuma, Fed\u2019in bu yaz faiz indirimine gitmesini son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 hale getiriyor. Son istihdam raporunda 215 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve yaln\u0131zca %3,7 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in bekle-g\u00f6r pozisyonunu korumas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeterli gerek\u00e7e bulunuyor. Tahvil getirilerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f beklenmeli; bu da uzun vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir i\u015flem fikri haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Fabrika sipari\u015flerindeki art\u0131\u015f, hammadde talebinde y\u00fckseli\u015fe de do\u011frudan i\u015faret ediyor. Bak\u0131r ve petrol gibi sanayi emtialar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev pozisyonlara bakman\u0131n uygun bir zaman oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD ekonomisinin ABD dolar\u0131na da destek vermesi beklenebilir; bu da di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar endeksinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz ivme: ABD ISM \u0130malat Yeni Sipari\u015fler May\u0131s\u2019ta 54,1\u2019den 56,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; talep g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Fed indirimi zay\u0131flad\u0131, tahvil getirileri yukar\u0131. D\u00f6ng\u00fcseller, emtialar ve dolarda opsiyon f\u0131rsatlar\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47678,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47878"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47878\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47678"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}