ABD ISM imalat istihdam endeksi May\u0131s\u2019ta \u00f6nceki 46,4 seviyesinden 48,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselerek fabrikalarda istihdam kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z kesti\u011fine i\u015faret etti. G\u00f6sterge, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile daralmay\u0131 ay\u0131ran 50 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda kalsa da ayl\u0131k bazdaki iyile\u015fme, sekt\u00f6rde i\u015fe al\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceye k\u0131yasla daha az zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket, endeksin genel olarak daralmaya i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine ra\u011fmen, \u00fcreticilerin bir \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla istihdama ili\u015fkin daha iyi okumalar bildirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. May\u0131s sonucu ISM anketinin istihdam bile\u015feninde toparlanmaya i\u015faret ederken, endeks h\u00e2len imalatta bordrolar\u0131n net olarak artmaktan ziyade azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ISM imalat istihdam\u0131ndaki 48,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseli\u015f, daralmaya i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de sekt\u00f6rdeki gerilemenin h\u0131z kesti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bunu, imalat istihdam\u0131ndaki en k\u00f6t\u00fc d\u00f6nemin \u015fimdilik geride kalm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine dair bir i\u015faret olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 istikrar, Fed \u00fczerinde agresif faiz indirimleri i\u00e7in olu\u015fan k\u0131sa vadeli bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un yak\u0131n zamanda %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Temmuz faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %50\u2019ye do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili getirilerinde hafif bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz. Pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek varl\u0131klara maruziyetimizi bir miktar azaltacak \u015fekilde ayarl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi endeksleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu veri, piyasadaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelin s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. S\u00fcregelen daralma, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bo\u011fa senaryosunu engelledi\u011finden, yatay bantta seyreden bir piyasadan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla S&P 500\u2019de para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, \u201cdaha az k\u00f6t\u00fc\u201d haberlerin ger\u00e7ekten iyi habere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde piyasalar s\u0131kl\u0131kla ivme kaybetmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Fed i\u00e7in daha az g\u00fcvercin bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD dolar\u0131na destek sa\u011flayabilir. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha gev\u015fek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 (\u00f6rne\u011fin Japon Yeni) dolar\u0131 tercih etmeye y\u00f6nelik bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dolar endeksi (DXY) ge\u00e7en ay 104 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda destek bulmu\u015ftu; bu veri seti de s\u00f6z konusu taban\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Sekt\u00f6rel tarafta ise sanayi ve temel malzemeleri daha yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Zay\u0131fl\u0131k s\u00fcrmekle birlikte, daralman\u0131n h\u0131z kesmesi bir dip olu\u015fumuna i\u015faret ediyor olabilir; bu da a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, kaliteli sanayi hisselerinde se\u00e7ici bi\u00e7imde al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunabilir. May\u0131s 2026 verileri, sanayi ETF\u2019inin (XLI) geni\u015f piyasaya k\u0131yasla %2 daha zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor; bu da ortalamaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (mean-reversion) i\u015flemi i\u00e7in aday h\u00e2line getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz iyile\u015fme: ABD ISM imalat istihdam\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta 46,4\u2019ten 48,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. Daralma s\u00fcrse de kay\u0131plar yava\u015fl\u0131yor; Fed indirimi bask\u0131s\u0131 azalabilir, tahvil getirileri ve dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir, hisselerde yatay risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47877","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47877","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47877"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47877\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47877"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47877"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47877"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}