ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI verisi may\u0131sta 54 ile 53\u2019l\u00fck beklentiyi a\u015farak geldi. Veri, piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir faaliyet temposuna i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet sonu\u00e7, endeksin geni\u015fleme b\u00f6lgesinde kalmas\u0131yla imalat ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n tahminlere k\u0131yasla iyile\u015fti\u011fini teyit etti. Ayr\u0131ca may\u0131s verisinin konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn 1 puan \u00fczerinde gelmesi, anket momentumuyla \u00f6nceki tahminler aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ISM imalat verisinin 54 seviyesinde gelmesi, ABD ekonomisinin beklentilerden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal. Bu s\u00fcrpriz g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, piyasan\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemleri i\u00e7in fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz indirimlerini Fed\u2019in erteleme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Art\u0131k \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz ortam\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyonlar\u0131 yeniden ayarlamam\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu veri, \u00f6zellikle sanayi ve teknoloji sekt\u00f6rlerinde \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumlu. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %8 y\u00fckselen ve yeni bir ivme g\u00f6rebilecek S&P 500\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son istatistikler, fabrika sipari\u015flerinin ge\u00e7en ay %0,7 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stererek imalattaki dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k e\u011filimini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasas\u0131nda, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde getiriler y\u00fckselirken tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyoruz. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerinde fiyatlama da \u015fimdiden de\u011fi\u015fti; y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %15\u2019e geriledi (ge\u00e7en hafta %40). Buna paralel olarak 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131yor, getirilerin yeniden %4,75\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin do\u011frudan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131 beklenir. ECB gibi di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 daha g\u00fcvercin kal\u0131rken dolar endeksinin (DXY) son zirvelerinin \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Euro ve yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Emtialarda tablo kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. Bak\u0131r gibi sanayi metallerinin, 2021\u2019deki ekonomik yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclen paterne benzer \u015fekilde artan imalat talebinden faydalanmas\u0131 muhtemel. Ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve daha y\u00fcksek faizlerin birle\u015fimi alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilece\u011finden, de\u011ferli metallere maruziyetimizi azalt\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz ABD verisi piyasay\u0131 ters k\u00f6\u015feye yat\u0131rd\u0131: ISM \u0130malat PMI may\u0131sta 54 ile beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi ertelenebilir; tahvil getirileri yukar\u0131, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; S&P 500\u2019e destek, alt\u0131na bask\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47876","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47876"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47876\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}